Another round of talks to end the war in Ukraine begins today in Abu Dhabi. While the overall outlook for Kyiv remains complex and controversial, this time there are signs that may answer a key question: is Russian leader Vladimir Putin really ready to consider a real peace settlement, rather than a sham process?.
According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the current round looks more promising than the previous ones. According to them, there is a change in tone from the Russian delegation, which previously reduced the dialogue to formal statements and delaying the process.
One of the American foreign policy experts who advised the Ukrainian side admits that the previous rounds of negotiations were extremely exhausting and fruitless. According to him, earlier any statements about "constructivity" seemed frankly detached from reality. At the same time, he now notes a more serious attitude of the Russian side to the negotiation process itself and cautiously suggests that the chances of ending the war in the spring still exist.
A former high-ranking Ukrainian official, commenting on the progress of the negotiations, was much more restrained in his predictions. At the same time, he also admitted that there had been a certain change in the mood and style of work at the negotiating table on the part of Russia. According to him, representatives of the Russian delegation this time are more focused on practical issues, rather than on ideological lectures about the "root causes" of the conflict.
This concerns, in particular, the heads of Russian military intelligence, who, according to the interlocutor, behave pragmatically and professionally, working out in detail the specific parameters of possible agreements. This contrasts markedly with the rhetoric traditionally voiced by the Kremlin's political representatives, led by the Foreign Minister and Putin himself.
Ukrainian circles do not rule out that such a transformation of Russia's position may be related to changes in Europe. In particular, the Kremlin is closely monitoring how European countries are increasing defense production, talking more and more seriously about a pan-European security system, and trying to reduce dependence on the United States. A peace agreement or the end of the war could significantly weaken this momentum, as it would become much more difficult for European leaders to convince their voters of the need for further increases in defense spending.
At the same time, in Kyiv and among Western analysts, a more cynical scenario is not ruled out. Moscow's change of tone may be an attempt to play on the expectations of the Donald Trump administration and reduce the level of pressure on Russia. At the same time, within the Russian Federation itself, peace without an obvious "victory" would look problematic for the Kremlin, which has already paid a huge economic and human price for the war.
Experts say Putin has little to offer Russian society as a clear result of these expenditures. Therefore, any peace deal in which he cannot claim triumph poses serious internal risks to the regime. This, analysts say, remains the main deterrent to a genuine end to the war.
