Foreign Affairs concluded that peace negotiations are not possible now, but at the same time called Russia's demands "too extreme," and that Kyiv's demand for reparations was normal.
“After more than two years of fighting, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reached a bloody stalemate. Such situations are usually described as “mutually damaging stalemates,” and often force the parties into negotiations, where they begin to consider previously unacceptable concessions.
But this military conflict has not reached the stage where its cessation by negotiations is even possible in principle. To make peace, both sides must be willing to accept each other's minimal demands. But neither Russia nor Ukraine can do that.
Kyiv, for example, does not recognize Russia's demand for a new leadership. Moscow does not accept Ukraine's demand for reparations. Neither side will give up territories.
No amount of creative diplomacy can change these facts. For both countries, continued fighting is preferable to a settlement. And unless there are dramatic changes on the battlefield or in the leadership of one of the states, it is highly unlikely that either side will reconsider their demands in the long term.
For there to be any chance of a negotiated settlement, the Russians would have to admit that their demands are too extreme. But the Kremlin is not interested in peace. All its statements about readiness for negotiations are kabuki theater, designed to present Moscow in a favorable light in order to undermine international support for Ukraine.
Neither country seems ready to change course, so the most likely outcome is continued fighting.
The Russians now have the initiative on the battlefield. Aid to Ukraine, by contrast, has stalled in Congress, and Western unity is shaky. Putin is right about one thing: Ukraine’s sovereignty exists as long as it can be protected from Moscow’s grip.”.
