Ukraine is dangerously close to losing control of Avdiivka, an important strategic settlement near Donetsk, where fighting has been ongoing since 2014. The Washington Post reports.
Avdiivka is a typical 29-kilometer strip of ruins stretching from southeast to northeast, two to three kilometers wide. Since the beginning of the conflict in Donbas, this area has been on the front line.
After the Russian offensive, Ukrainian forces successfully held their ground against Russian attempts to advance in that direction. However, in early October, the Russian army launched an offensive on positions in Avdiivka and its flanks. According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, after four months of constant attacks, the Russians suffered significant military and technical losses.
The destroyed coke plant, once a symbol of the Ukrainian economy in the east of the country, “will likely become the last Ukrainian fortress in Avdiivka,” report Washington Post journalists who visited the area.
“Ukrainian forces claim that it is only a matter of time before they will have to retreat from the city, and already on Thursday they announced a retreat from some positions due to the rapid advance of Russian forces,” WP notes.
Some Ukrainian military personnel compare the coke plant to Azovstal, a huge metallurgical enterprise in Mariupol, where Ukrainian troops held their last defense before losing the city in 2022. Hundreds of Ukrainians were then held captive at Azovstal.
“Storming the coke plant will be very difficult and probably not effective,” notes the drone operator of the “Alpha” unit in Avdiivka, whom WP identifies under the pseudonym “Vitamin.”.
“They will try to bypass him, surround him, and that’s it. Our forces will have to retreat,” the military man explains.
Why Avdiivka is of great importance
According to the Washington Post, Avdiivka is more strategically important to Russia than Bakhmut. The expulsion of Ukrainian forces from these territories “could lift the spirits” of the Russians ahead of the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion.
“It all comes down to logistics,” says Serhiy, the commander of an infantry platoon in the 53rd Ukrainian Armed Forces Brigade, which is fighting in the area. “The roads, the intersections, all of that: there is a significant logistics base in Avdiivka.”.
In May, Russia captured Bakhmut. Ukraine claimed that Russia’s continued defense of Bakhmut cost it tens of thousands of casualties. But the battle also exhausted the Ukrainian armed forces. Now, with a full retreat from Avdiivka looking likely, Ukraine is deploying fresh forces from airborne assault brigades to counter Russian attacks and continue the defense. Avdiivka could be the first serious test for the new commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, who must decide when to admit defeat and retreat.
Many military personnel accuse Syrsky, who previously commanded Ukraine's ground forces, of delaying resolving situations like the one in Bakhmut last year, when the city was under siege, for too long.
“Capturing Avdiivka would mark Moscow’s most significant battlefield victory since the failure of a Ukrainian counteroffensive last year – and would be the clearest evidence yet that Russian forces are regaining the initiative as Kyiv runs out of soldiers, weapons, ammunition, morale and money.”.
Drones instead of artillery: shortage of shells in Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka
Ukrainian military is critically short of artillery shells in the battle for Avdiivka.
The BBC's Andrew Harding notes that the Czech-supplied artillery can fire up to 36 shells at a time, and previously fired 80 shells a day at Russian positions near Avdiivka. But that has changed. "We currently have two shells, but we don't have any charges for them... so we can't fire them. We've run out of shells at the moment," explains Ukrainian officer Oleksiy from the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
It is noted that the shortage of shells significantly affects the combat capabilities in Avdiivka. In these conditions, the Ukrainian military decided to use FPV drones as an alternative to artillery. They are more accurate, faster and easier to manufacture. However, the Russian troops also have the same equipment, which complicates the situation.
This tactic involves using drones to stop attacks by small groups of enemy infantry, leaving artillery for more important targets. It is part of the “active defense” currently being used by Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka.
“It may not make sense to hold Avdiivka, but we do it anyway, because we inflict more losses on the enemy here than we suffer. We destroy their supplies,” one of the soldiers noted.
Is Ukraine preparing for retreat?
According to John Kirby, the White House National Security Council's Strategic Communications Coordinator, Avdiivka may fall under the control of Russian troops due to a shortage of ammunition in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“We are receiving reports from Ukrainian partners that the situation there is critical. As Russian forces continue to pressure Ukrainian positions, there is a threat that Avdiivka could fall under their control,” the American official said.
There is currently no official information about the Ukrainian army retreating from most of Avdiivka. However, military bloggers and commentators suggest that due to the circumstances that occurred this week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces units are gradually withdrawing from the city, and some may find themselves surrounded.
Ukrainian journalist Bohdan Miroshnikov writes: “There will be new difficult decisions and news ahead. Our garrison remains in the 9th quarter and the Avdiivka coke plant. In other parts, we have retreated somewhere, and we are fighting somewhere. But I think the trend is clear.”.
According to the Ukrainian military-analytical project DeepState, Russian troops have raised their flag over the fortified area of Zenit in the south of the city, and some Ukrainian units may find themselves in a difficult defense.
Oleksandr Borodin, the presiding officer of the Third Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, notes: “Ukrainian forces are currently in a complex defense format. Some units operate at 360 degrees, meaning the enemy can attack from almost any direction. We must understand that there are two armies against us. This is probably the most serious fist of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.”.
At the final moment, on Friday night, the commander of the active Ukrainian group “Tavria”, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, made a statement regarding the situation in Avdiivka.
He stressed that active fighting is ongoing in the city and the garrison is holding its ground, adding that reinforcements and additional ammunition have been sent to it. In his statement, the general also noted:
“We have already prepared new positions and continue to create powerful defensive structures, taking into account various scenarios… Every piece of Ukrainian land is of great importance to us, but the highest priority is to preserve the lives of Ukrainian soldiers.”.
