According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the redeployment of Russian troops to the Kursk region will have a significant impact on Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. American analysts believe that this weakening of offensive capabilities in other areas of the front can significantly affect the course of the war.
At the moment, Russia has the strategic initiative in the entire theater of operations, which allows it to determine the place, time and intensity of military operations in Ukraine. This advantage gave the Russian forces the opportunity to determine the pace of the offensive, implementing long-term and sustained offensive operations, as well as to avoid a rapid climax.
However, according to ISW, Russian forces have actively used their strategic and operational reserves to support offensive operations through the summer of 2024. Many of these reserves were involved in offensive operations in the east and northeast of Ukraine in the spring and summer of 2024. This has led to a significant depletion of resources, which is already negatively affecting Russia's ability to maintain an offensive initiative.
The transfer of Russian troops to the Kursk region will increase the burden on the remaining operational reserves. This could significantly affect Russia's ability to sustain consistent offensive operations on all fronts. As a result, Russia will probably be forced to reduce its activity in less priority areas of the front.
ISW experts predict that the further movement of Russian forces to the northwest and increased priority of supporting offensive operations in the Donetsk region will weaken Russia's ability to maintain the same intensity of offensive actions in the northeast and east of Ukraine. This may lead to a decrease in Russian offensive activity in other areas of the front, which will give Ukrainian forces more opportunities to counterattack and stabilize the situation in the east of the country.
In general, the reduction of Russian military activity in some areas of the front may be the result of the depletion of resources and the transfer of forces to new areas. This creates conditions for possible changes in the military situation in the east of Ukraine and may open up new opportunities for Ukrainian forces in their fight against Russian aggression.
