Foreign Affairs came to the conclusion that there can be no peace talks now, but at the same time calls Russia's demands "too extreme", and Kiev's demand for reparations is normal.
"After more than two years of fighting, Russia's invasion of Ukraine reached a bloody stalemate. Usually, such situations are described as "mutually damaging stalemates", and often this forces the parties to negotiate, they begin to consider previously unacceptable concessions.
But this military conflict has not reached the stage where its termination through negotiations is even possible in principle. In order to make peace, both sides must be willing to accept each other's minimum demands. But neither Russia nor Ukraine can do that.
Kyiv, for example, does not recognize Russia's demand for a new leadership. Moscow does not accept Ukraine's demand for reparations. Both sides will not give up the territories.
No amount of creative diplomacy can change these facts. For both countries, the continuation of hostilities is better than a settlement. And unless there are drastic changes on the battlefield or in the leadership of one of the states, it is extremely unlikely that both sides will revise their demands in the long term.
For there to be any chance of a negotiated settlement, the Russians would have to admit that their demands are too extreme. But the Kremlin is not interested in peace. All his statements about readiness for negotiations are kabuki theater designed to present Moscow in a favorable light in order to undermine international support for Ukraine.
Neither country seems ready to change course. Therefore, the most likely outcome is the continuation of hostilities.
Now the Russians have the initiative on the battlefield. Aid to Ukraine, on the contrary, has stalled in Congress, and the unity of the West is shaky. Putin is right about one thing: Ukraine's sovereignty exists as long as it can be protected from Moscow's grip."
