Over the past year, Ukrainian diplomatic initiatives have been actively aimed at implementing "Zelenskyi's peace formula." The President of Ukraine has repeatedly emphasized that only the implementation of all ten of its points can lead to a just peace, other peace initiatives are not considered.
The culmination of this process will be the "Global Peace Summit", which is organized on the basis of the Ukrainian initiative. According to his concept, the leaders of dozens of countries will gather to discuss Zelensky's formula and develop a clear plan for achieving peace based on it, which will be submitted to Moscow for consideration.
More information about the preparation for this event, the difficulties of its organization and the expected results of the summit, which will be held in mid-June in Switzerland.
Peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia began shortly after the full-scale invasion in late February 2022. The initial meetings of the delegations took place on the territory of Belarus, and already in March the negotiations moved to Istanbul. At first glance, the parties managed to make some progress and even define the framework of the future agreement. However, later the contacts between them took a bad turn.
There is only speculation about the reasons for the breakdown of these negotiations. Some observers point to differences in the vision of the principle points of the documents that were discussed. Others note the emergence of information about crimes committed by the Russian military during the occupation of Ukrainian settlements. Also on the list of possible reasons are the hopes of both sides for the possibility of resolving the conflict on the battlefield and the lack of guarantees of the implementation of the agreement by third parties. Mutual distrust also played a role.
Presumably, a complex of reasons played a role in this. In any case, by the summer of 2022, any attempts at contact between Kyiv and Moscow have stopped, and now only semi-formal negotiations are underway on humanitarian issues, such as the exchange of prisoners and bodies of the dead, as well as the return of children taken from Ukraine.
After negotiations between Ukraine and Russia failed, leaders of third countries took it upon themselves to improve communication between Ukrainian and Russian leaders.
In June 2022, the first attempt was made by the President of Indonesia, Joko Widodo, who flew the Kyiv-Moscow route. After that, he announced the transmission of a message from Volodymyr Zelensky to Vladimir Putin and promised to continue to promote communication between them.
The response from Kyiv was nervous. Zelenskyi's press secretary, Serhiy Nikiforov, noted that if the president of Ukraine had something to convey to his Russian counterpart, he would do so during his daily televised address.
"You don't need to take on something that you definitely won't be able to do," commented Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of the Office of the Ukrainian President.
Also, in the summer of 2022, Moscow began to actively spread messages about its readiness to immediately resume peace talks with Kyiv through various communication channels. This was stated not only by Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov, but also by mediators such as German Ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder or Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had ties to the Kremlin.
New messages about various "peace plans" from different countries and groups of states for Ukraine and Russia appeared in the space of information flows. During the end of 2022 - the beginning of 2023, such initiatives were announced by China, Indonesia, the Vatican, as well as a group of African states under the informal leadership of South Africa.
According to a diplomat who spoke to the BBC, at a certain point the number of such initiatives reached a dozen, but many of them remained non-public, and it was believed that these were attempts to "mediate in favor of Russia."
However, communications from Kyiv caused certain comments. On the one hand, Ukraine rejected all the plans proposed by the "partners", and on the other hand, expressed readiness for negotiations with Russia only after the withdrawal of the last Russian soldier from the internationally recognized territories of Ukraine, including Crimea. Such a position looked ultimatum and unrealistic to many external observers.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi's decree banning any negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin from September 30, 2022 also caused conflicting assessments. Some Ukrainian commentators understood it as an emotional reaction to the decision of the Russian authorities to "join" four regions of Ukraine to the Russian Federation, but many external observers perceived this decree as a sign of intractability and lack of desire for a peaceful settlement on the part of Ukraine.
In such conditions, Ukraine needs its own peace plan, which would reflect the Ukrainian vision of ending the war and would be able to reduce the "international noise" around various peace initiatives.
Throughout the summer of 2022, Ukrainian representatives developed, and in the fall presented a framework initiative called "Zelenskyi's Peace Formula."
At that time, the situation on the military front became much more complicated for the Russian troops. In September, Ukrainian troops conducted an effective operation "Slobozhan offensive", as a result of which they liberated a large territory and dozens of settlements in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia was forced to stop the further advance of its troops only with the help of a hasty and unpopular partial mobilization.
In early November, Russia had to make a "difficult decision" to withdraw its troops from Kherson, the only city captured after a full-scale invasion. At the same time, Moscow carried out large-scale attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. These strikes were not of strategic importance and may have been aimed at increasing anti-war sentiment in Ukraine, but they only strengthened the resistance of the population.
Western experts called this situation a strategic defeat for Russia, noting the successes of Ukraine and its military and political leadership.
Exactly in this context, on November 15, 2022, just four days after the liberation of Kherson, Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented the "Peace Formula" at the G20 summit in Indonesia. He argued that the implementation of its ten points would bring a just peace, as well as ensure adequate punishment of the aggressor and deter similar conflicts in the future.
The description of "Zelensky's peace formula" includes the following points:
- Radiation and nuclear safety.
- Food safety.
- Energy security.
- Release of all prisoners and deportees, including stolen Ukrainian children.
- Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the world order.
- Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities.
- Restoring justice.
- Anti-ecocide.
- Avoiding escalation.
- Fixing the end of the war.
Many Western observers see this "Ukrainian peace formula" as conditions for Russia's capitulation. Its implementation, in their opinion, does not leave Vladimir Putin with the opportunity to get out of the conflict, saving his face. Thus, Zelensky's plan is considered unrealistic.
On the other hand, for Kyiv, the territorial integrity of Ukraine is an unacceptable condition for any negotiations with Moscow, since any piece of land under Russian control can become the site of new aggression. For Ukraine, a "just peace" is not just a matter of bargaining and compromises with the aggressor, but also about the values on which the civilized world is based. Therefore, Kyiv's rhetoric regarding the end of the war is focused on the concept of "justice".
The official position of the West is that Kyiv should independently decide when to sit down at the negotiating table with Moscow and what conditions to put forward at that table. In Zelensky's "peace plan" they see a formally announced position for such hypothetical negotiations. And this position is supported by Western partners of Ukraine, who cannot afford anything else in the public sphere.
In the first presentation of the "peace formula" at the G20 summit in Indonesia, Volodymyr Zelenskyi shared his vision for the implementation of its points.
"We already have a positive experience of the grain export initiative. How does it work? There is a UN and two parties to the agreements: on one side - Ukraine, Turkey and the UN, on the other - Russia, Turkey and the UN. In a similar way, the implementation of each of the points I mentioned can work, where the parties can be different states that are ready to take the lead in this or that issue," he explained.
Although now, after Russia's withdrawal from the "grain agreement" and Ukraine's provision of the "grain corridor" on its own, this analogy may lose its relevance, but these words demonstrate the essence of the Ukrainian plan.
According to this plan, Kyiv's partners can independently choose which points of "Zelensky's peace formula" they are most interested in, and which are less or more problematic.
According to the BBC, the least enthusiasm, especially among the countries of the Global South, is caused by the points about the withdrawal of Russian troops from the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine and about the restoration of justice, which, according to Kyiv, includes the creation of a special tribunal to convict the aggressors.
The algorithm of Ukraine's actions regarding the implementation of the "peace formula" consists of three levels. The first is regular meetings of Andriy Yermak's team with ambassadors accredited in Kyiv. The second level is "summits" of advisers to state leaders. There were already four of them, and they discussed possible options for implementing the points of the "peace formula". The highest level of this process is the "Global Peace Summit", at which the plan must be handed over to Russia.
According to Volodymyr Zelenskyi, the second "Global Peace Summit" will not take place on the European continent. Andriy Yermak said that at this summit, to which the Russians will be invited, an international document must be adopted that will record the end of the war - the fulfillment of the last, tenth point of the "Ukrainian peace formula".
"For critics and skeptics, let me explain: the project is not a Ukrainian wish list, but a thorough and detailed proposal, which has enormous legitimacy thanks to the participation of countries all over the world," Andriy Yermak wrote about this document in January of this year.
"This does not mean that Russia will accept this document... But we say that this document will be presented by the negotiators to the Russian side, and we will be ready for the appropriate diplomatic steps before the second summit... We will offer (Putin) a platform on which he can agree that for him, it (the war against Ukraine) was a mistake," Zelenskyi said in February this year.
What will happen if Russia refuses to implement the plan developed without its participation? A knowledgeable interlocutor of the BBC from the Ukrainian authorities answers: "In this case, other countries participating in the process will be included, not only Ukraine."
However, it is obviously too early to talk about the second peace summit. The timing of the first summit - in Kyiv it is called the inaugural or founding summit - was repeatedly postponed. In the last year, the dates of the summit were called: last July, "by the end of autumn 2023", "by the end of 2023", February 24, 2024 - the day of the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Russia, "by the end of spring this year".
Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands and New York were mentioned as possible places for the summit.
"We did not want to hold a summit for the sake of a summit, we wanted it to bring concrete results. And secondly, we wanted to achieve the widest possible representation of the countries of the Global South on it, so we needed additional time to convince them, to convey our point of view to them. But by diplomatic standards, everything is happening very quickly for a project of this scale: less than a year ago, we held the first meeting of advisers in Copenhagen, and now we are already preparing a summit of leaders," said Daria Zarivna, who has been working on this topic from the very beginning.
In January of this year, the presidents of Switzerland and Ukraine agreed that the founding "peace summit" will be held in Switzerland. Later, the date and place of this event were announced: it is scheduled for June 15-16 this year at the Bürgenstock resort near Lucerne.
Now the organization of the "Global Peace Summit" has become the main foreign policy priority for the Office of the President of Ukraine. Calls to Swiss colleagues on this issue take place almost every day, confirms the representative of the press service, Daria Zarivna.
Official invitations will be sent to potential participants of the summit in the near future.
Even such a seemingly protocol step as sending invitations is of great importance. The composition of the summit participants and the level of representation at it will determine the significance and possible outcomes of the event.
The representative of the president noted that it is important for Kyiv that the states participating in the summit are represented by their heads.
The organizers took this aspect into account when determining the date of the summit. First, it will take place a week after the European Parliament elections, which will ease the political pressure on European leaders. Secondly, it falls on the days immediately following the summit of the "Big Seven" scheduled for June 13-15 in Puglia, Italy. This will reduce logistical difficulties for the participation of the leaders of the "Big Seven" countries, in particular US President Joe Biden, whose presence in Bürgenstock will automatically give the "peace summit" the status of global importance.
Of particular interest is the issue of the participation of Russian representatives from the BRICS. Although invitations will be sent to them, it is doubtful that all of them will accept them.
The maximum achievement for the organizers of the "peace summit" would be the arrival of Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Switzerland. Even at a certain stage, hopes for China's full participation in Volodymyr Zelenskyi's peace initiative seemed well-founded. Last summer, a representative of official Beijing participated in a meeting of political advisers in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
"China's participation in the summit in Jeddah proved that we are able to unite the West and the Global South around the vision of a just peace. It was painful and unexpected for the Russians," Andriy Yermak summed up.
However, the Chinese did not come to the next summits of advisers.
China's current position is that the West should immediately stop sending weapons to Ukraine, hostilities should freeze on the current contact line, and Kyiv and Moscow should start peace talks. In Kyiv, such an approach is fundamentally rejected. "A simple ceasefire today would be tantamount to legitimizing the seizure of territories by Russia and would pave the way for another frozen conflict - a scenario that is both unjust, dangerous and, moreover, unsustainable," wrote Andriy Yermak in an article for Politico last December .
Regarding the June "peace summit", Beijing's position is not fully understood. On the one hand, in March of this year, the Chinese ambassador to Switzerland, Wang Shiting, did not rule out the participation of his country in this event. On the other hand, at about the same time, Politico, citing high-ranking sources, reported that China "is trying to convince Europe to allow Russia to sit down at the table for peace negotiations - perhaps already in Switzerland, otherwise Beijing will ignore such meetings."
China's Foreign Ministry officially states that Beijing would support "the organization of a peace conference at the appropriate time with equal participation of all parties" - it should be read, Ukraine and Russia.
A number of other states are also talking about the expediency of a conference in which both Kyiv and Moscow would participate. In March of this year, during negotiations with Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Turkish leader Recep Erdogan said that his country is ready to "restart the negotiation process that was previously held in Istanbul" - that is, to host a peace summit with the participation of representatives of both Ukraine and Russia.
"We do not see how it is possible to invite (to negotiations) people who block, destroy and kill everything. We want to get results. The result is a just peace for Ukraine. Therefore, civilized states will first develop a plan, and only then will they involve representatives of Russia, who want a just peace", Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded quite sharply to this proposal.
The need to involve Russia in talks about peace in Ukraine is also being discussed in Europe - and it is not only about the representatives of Hungary and Slovakia, who are considered "Putin's Trojan horses" in the European Union. In January of this year, the Swiss Minister of Foreign Affairs Ignazio Cassis said that "we have to find one or another way to involve Russia" in the negotiation process. But here, rather, we are talking about a long-term perspective: there will clearly be no representatives of Russia at the June summit.
The list of countries to which invitations will be sent will not be made public. In February of this year, Andriy Yermak noted that invitations will be sent to 160 world capitals. According to Bloomberg from the beginning of April, "80-100 countries" will participate in the summit.
A BBC source in the President's Office reports that invitations will be sent to more than 160 countries, and representatives of "more than a hundred states" will come to Switzerland.
According to Daria Zarivnaya, the organizers did not aim to reach the maximum number of participants due to the logistical limitations of the host party. "This is a huge task of scale, similar to the UN General Assembly," she comments.
Interlocutors of the BBC do not rule out that due to the limited possibilities of receiving such a large number of high-ranking officials, some participants will join the event in an online format.
The final list of participating countries of the "peace summit" can be made public only on the day of its opening.
Such secrecy measures do not surprise those who follow the events surrounding the "Zelensky formula". Similarly, the lists of participants of the advisers' summits in Jeddah, Malta and Davos have not been published.
The organizers of the upcoming "peace summit" explain that they are forced to take such measures due to pressure from Russia, which is trying to prevent the participation of states, primarily from the Global South, in events organized by the Ukrainian side.
"Many countries from the Global South say: of course, we support you, but we don't want problems with Russia," notes an interlocutor from the Office of the President of Ukraine.
"We have accurate intelligence information that Russia has plans not only to disrupt the peace summit, but also to reduce the number of participants in the event and continue the war," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a meeting with foreign and Ukrainian ambassadors in Kyiv last week.
However, there were no public comments on this from either Zelenskyi or foreign diplomats.
The Ukrainian mass media reported that the Russian Foreign Ministry held talks with the ambassadors of the countries of the Global South in Moscow, urging them to ignore the meetings of advisers on the "peace formula".
The BBC cannot independently confirm this information.
Moscow's official position regarding the June "peace summit" can be characterized as "aggressive ignoring". Formally, Russia continues to express its "constructive" readiness to start negotiations with Ukraine at any moment.
In March of this year, Vladimir Putin noted that Russia is ready for negotiations, but only on the realities that have developed, and is not ready to base negotiations on "wishes" after the use of psychotropic drugs.
There are opinions that the list of Putin's demands may be even wider, including the replacement of the Ukrainian government with one more adapted to the demands of the Kremlin. Ukraine believes that Russia's goal may be to eliminate Ukrainian statehood.
Moscow refuses to participate in the Swiss summit even if it is invited, calling the holding of the summit in Switzerland "senseless".
There are high hopes for the upcoming summit in Switzerland, but they may be overstated, especially on the part of official Kyiv, as evidenced by sociological research and the statements of Ukrainian politicians.
The optimism of Ukrainian top politicians is transmitted to citizens, but is it realistic to expect progress in resolving the conflict at a summit where one of the key parties does not participate?
Experts recommend looking at the summit not as an instrument to end the war, but as a forum for formulating the future of the post-conflict world order. Such a position allows us to see similarities with historical conferences that laid the foundations of future international relations.
The main task of the summit is to develop specific proposals that could become the basis for future peace negotiations. The process of working on the document can take a lot of time and take place both at the summit itself and outside of it.
Despite the friction and possible conflicts, the goal remains clear: to develop a document that would be simple, clear and leave no room for different interpretations, but at the same time would be accepted as a minimum by all interested parties.
According to the interlocutors of the BBC, the outcome of the "Global Peace Summit" will be determined by the events on the battlefield in the east and south of Ukraine.
The former ambassador of Ukraine to the USA and Russia, Volodymyr Yelchenko, claims that the main player in the negotiations will be the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
While Russian troops control the initiative on the contact line. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, warn of a possible new offensive by Russia.
Western media speculate that Vladimir Putin may not want to change his policy toward Ukraine before the American elections in November. But Ukrainian officials are hoping for military aid from the US and a law on mobilization.
The possible use of modern Western aircraft on the battlefield before the start of the summit can also strengthen Ukraine's position.
If Ukraine shows more or less success on the battlefield by mid-June, it may affect the final document of the summit, forcing diplomats to express a firmer position against Russia.
If the situation on the battlefield is not favorable for Ukraine, the summit may call for negotiations with Moscow on its terms, and the summit itself may end without a final document.
However, even if the summit does not lead to concrete results, it could also be an important sign. Ukraine is not ready to discuss any scenarios that predict its defeat, and President Zelensky confidently claims that he will win.
