According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces are planning to expand their positions northwest of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, carrying out actions aimed at achieving strategic goals. The report indicates that Russian forces have concentrated in the Berdychi-Novokalinov area, with different tactical directions in mind. However, their capabilities may be limited due to anticipated military aid from the US and European countries that may arrive in the near future.
It is noted that the Russian troops are forming three main directions of advance, including movement west from Berdychi, towards the village of Ocheretine, as well as advancing along road O0544 in the direction of the village of Novokalynove. These actions are aimed at reaching the strategic border of Donetsk region with the intention of controlling the city of Pokrovsk.
An analysis of the ISW report shows that while Russian forces have managed to create several salients on the front, they are too limited for further strategic operations. It is expected that Russian forces will try to combine their efforts to create a wider breakthrough along the line Berdychi - Novokalinov.
However, the report notes that Russian troops do not have enough time for a wider offensive due to the expected help from Western countries. The planned replenishment of the arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may take place in the near future, which may significantly adjust the balance of forces.
Analysts believe that the arrival of Western aid will allow Ukrainian forces to maintain the initiative on the battlefield and reduce the pressure of Russian forces. In the coming weeks, Russian forces are expected to continue to try to win tactical victories in various areas, but their capabilities will be limited by the expected help from the West.
