Enemy plans in the direction of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka

On the Eastern Front, in the area of ​​Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk of the Donetsk region, Russian troops are trying to seize the key road connecting these settlements and leading to Kramatorsk, in order to complicate the logistics of the Ukrainian forces. Russian paratroopers, whose units are constantly replenished, are operating against Ukrainian units. At this time, the Ukrainian authorities are actively evacuating local residents to protect them from shelling.

Chasiv Yar, located 15 km from Bakhmut captured by the Russians, was a city of sand quarries, clay landscapes and blue lakes before the start of the full-scale invasion. About 13,000 people lived here, and a mobile hospital for the Ukrainian military was also located here.

Today, Chasiv Yar has become a key settlement that deters the advance of the Russian army on the road to Kostiantynivka. About 600 people remained in the city, most of whom evacuated in the fall of 2022 or after the capture of Bakhmut in the summer of 2023. The city is regularly shelled, forcing local residents to hide in basements. Despite the difficult conditions, humanitarian aid is still arriving.

"There is water, but humanitarian food aid is difficult. They help the military in case of need," says Serhii Chaus, head of the Chasovoy Yar city military administration. "We are trying to create living conditions for people and evacuate everyone who wants to. Recently, they evacuated a guy who lost his leg, and also conducted a medical evacuation for a sick person."

Chaus emphasizes that local authorities are constantly calling for evacuation. "We address people in different ways - with postcards, personally, we bring video appeals from relatives. We explain that evacuation really saves lives," he says.

Evacuation is carried out not only from Chasovoy Yar, but also from other towns and villages of Pokrovsky, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut districts.

Russian troops have probably achieved a limited breakthrough in the eastern suburbs of Chasovoy Yar, according to the intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain. Fierce battles continue in urban areas, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces are trying to stop the advance of the enemy. According to analysts, the Russian army could take control of the village of Ivanovske, southeast of Chasovoy Yar, but their advance is currently limited to the eastern side of the canal that runs through the city.

Ukrainian sources confirm the difficult situation in the area of ​​the city. The General Staff calls the situation near Chasovoy Yar tense, but does not report on the enemy's successes. "Measures are being taken to prevent the enemy from advancing deep into our territory," the official statement said.

"The situation is difficult, there is informational silence", - says military expert Mykhailo Zhirokhov. He adds that in the direction of Kharkiv, Polish Wolverine APCs and American Stryker APCs, as well as units from the Kherson Oblast strengthening the defense, were spotted.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to hold positions on the eastern sections of the front, inflicting significant losses on the enemy and preparing fortifications for the defense of Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk.

In the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops are systematically trying to implement their plan, said Kostiantyn Mashovets, a military observer and coordinator of the "Information Resistance" group.

"The enemy managed to break through the city limits of Chasiv Yar by the advanced units of the 98th Airborne Division and capture almost half of the Kanal microdistrict." There are now fierce close-quarters battles in urban development. Perhaps they will be able to completely occupy the neighborhood and get to the bridge crossing over the canal on Koshovoy Street," Mashovets explains.

The 98th Airborne Division from Ivanovo, known for its participation in the battles for the village of Moschun near Kyiv in March 2022, has significantly higher training than the "Storm-Z" penalty battalions that participated in the battles for Bakhmut.

Military expert Mykhailo Zhirokhov notes that individual training is necessary in street battles, since artillery works in a limited way, and tanks are not used.

In contrast to the massive attacks on Bakhmut, Russian forces are now trying to bypass Chasiv Yar and press on the village of Klishchiivka. The village has already been practically destroyed, and units of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division are operating there. They are attacking in the southern direction along the channel "Siverskyi Donets - Donbas" and through Klishchiivka, displacing Ukrainian units.

Mashovets warns of possible concentrated attempts by the enemy in the Kramatorsk direction to push the Armed Forces of Ukraine beyond the canal south of the road Kostyantynivka — Bakhmut. With further escalation of efforts, the enemy can achieve significant operational successes. The capture of Chasovoy Yar will allow the Russians to enter the operational space and cut the Kostiantynivka-Kramatorsk road, which will complicate Ukrainian logistics.

Experts also warn that the loss of Chasovoy Yar will open the enemy's way to Kostyantynivka, and from there it will be possible to advance to Kramatorsk or shell Kostyantynivka more intensively.

In the Pokrovsky direction, the situation remains tense. According to the General Staff, since June 13, Russian troops have made 32 breakthrough attempts, of which 24 were repulsed, and eight battles are still ongoing. Kostyantyn Mashovets believes that if the enemy introduces additional forces, tactical successes can turn into operational successes.

The enemy's goal is to reach the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka road. If this happens, Toretsk will find itself in a difficult position. This area has remained stable since 2015 due to fortified positions and special topography.

Military expert Mykhailo Zhirokhov notes that it is currently difficult to predict the future actions of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky, as reserves are scarce. The mobilized forces will be ready only by August. "If the Russians capture Chasiv Yar and decide to strike in the rear, we will have to retreat to Kostyantynivka and shorten the front line. But these are only theoretical considerations, it is difficult to predict something," says Zhirokhov.

Analysts note that the Russian armed forces also do not have as many resources as they claim, as part of their forces are directed in the direction of Kharkiv. The situation with Bakhmut cannot be compared. "The Russians have not yet started the summer operation. What we saw in Kharkiv Oblast is only the first echelon. They have another one. They have a dilemma: to strengthen the Kharkiv direction or to transfer forces to Donetsk to advance there. There is a third option — to expand the front line at the expense of the Sumy region. We are not considering the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia directions, they cannot do anything there," the expert adds.

In general, Russia continues to implement its plan to enter the administrative borders of Donetsk region. Despite some successes, such as the capture of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, this intention, announced at the beginning of a full-scale invasion, remains unfulfilled for a long time.

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