Donald Trump's fierce desire to "quickly end the war in Ukraine," which has recently become his slogan again, could result in a geopolitical deal with the Kremlin — to the detriment of Ukraine, Europe, and even the American energy industry, according to a major analytical article by Politico, citing diplomatic sources and industry experts.
The American publication notes: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has opened unprecedented opportunities for the United States in the European energy market. It was Washington that became the key supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU, displacing Gazprom after the continent's long-standing dependence on Russian fuel.
However, the situation may change dramatically this year.
Politico notes that the Trump team is already struggling between two approaches: some insist on making peace with Russia at any cost, while others — in particular, representatives of the energy sector — warn that such a deal would be a disaster for the American LNG business and could return Russian gas to Europe.
“ This would mean that the Trump administration is literally shoving Russian gas down the throats of Europeans ,” the publication quotes an insider familiar with internal discussions in the Republican Party.
One option for a “peace deal” could be to lift US sanctions against Russian companies that export liquefied gas. This would allow Russia to return to the European market, which is now almost entirely owned by the United States.
Of particular concern is the prospect that such an agreement between Trump and Putin could split Europe itself. Eastern bloc countries, which once suffered the most from gas dependence on Russia, are categorically opposed to any revenge by Gazprom. At the same time, governments in some Western European countries, tired of high energy prices, may welcome the “new stability” that comes from compromises with Moscow.
Politico warns: if Trump implements such a scenario, Ukraine risks losing support, and the United States risks losing control over the strategic energy market. The initiative may look like a “grand deal,” but in fact it will be a concession to the aggressor and a blow to the credibility of American leadership.
“ Some fear that Trump’s penchant for spectacle and hyperbole will push him toward a peace deal with Russia that would weaken Ukraine and undermine U.S. exports ,” the authors of the publication summarize.
