According to the latest report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in the United States, after the retreat of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka, the Russian army is actively advancing on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in three directions: Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. Representatives of the Armed Forces also confirm the intensification of the actions of Russian troops.
An analysis of the ISW report indicates that Russian forces are trying to take advantage of delays in providing Western aid to Kyiv by conducting at least three offensive operations: along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, with a special emphasis on the direction of Kupyansk and Lyman; in Avdiivka district and its surroundings; as well as in the vicinity of the village of Robotyne in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region.
However, ISW analysts believe that the situation at the local level is more complicated than it may appear to Moscow. In particular, they note that after the retreat from Avdiivka, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will probably be able to establish a new line of defense near the city, which may lead to new intense hostilities in the area.
As a result, Russia's offensive may be met with resistance, ISW staff emphasize.
Conclusions after the withdrawal of troops from Avdiivka
The ISW report and several Ukrainian and Western sources noted that delays in Western aid to Kyiv, particularly for artillery ammunition and critical air defense systems, made it impossible for Ukrainian forces to hold Avdiyivka.
The current shortage of equipment coming from the West and the fear of a possible termination of American military aid have forced Ukrainian troops to reduce the use of weapons on the entire front.
This likely encouraged Russian forces to take advantage of the situation and launch limited offensive operations outside of Avdiivka. These operations were conducted along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk regions since the beginning of January 2024 and in the west of Zaporizhia region during the last 48 hours, according to ISW experts.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that Ukrainian troops had left the town of Avdiyivka to avoid encirclement after months of intense attacks by Russian forces.
Despite the claims of the Russian side about the chaotic retreat of Ukrainian troops and the absence of previously prepared defensive lines west of Avdiivka, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has no data to support these claims.
Experts of the institute believe that Moscow incorrectly assesses the operational situation. Moreover, they indicate that the Ukrainian command has recently reinforced its positions in Avdiivka to counterattack and ensure the safe retreat of its troops.
It seems that it is these fresh forces that will stand up against the Russian successors. Russian forces have suffered losses in previous assaults and the loss of equipment, which is likely to slow or halt this offensive.
Earlier, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported that units of the Russian military group "Center" established full control over the city of Avdiyivka and advanced 8.6 km on this section of the front.
The Russian military estimates the total area of captured Ukrainian territory in the Avdiyivka area to be 31.75 square meters. km
The commander of the Ukrainian military group "Tavria" Oleksandr Tarnavskyi confirmed the data about the Russian attacks, noting that "the Ukrainian military has established itself on the new lines of defense and is successfully repelling the attempts of the Russian invaders to develop an offensive."
"Tactical maneuvers": The situation in the Robotyny region
Reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources indicate a slight advance of the Russian army in the Zaporozhye direction and an increase in the intensity of fighting in the Robotyny area.
Robotyne became one of the key targets of the Ukrainian forces during the summer offensive, and after several weeks of active fighting, they were able to regain control of it.
According to the Russian TV channel Z-channel WarGonzo, Russian troops struck this area from Novoprokopivka and Verbovoy. "Tactical advancement is observed in both directions," writes the author of the Telegram channel Semen Pegov.
A massive attack from Robotyny to Vervovy was also reported by a Ukrainian military source Deep State. According to their data, Russian troops managed to break through the defenses southeast of Verboi, but now Ukrainian troops are "resolving this situation." In the evening of Sunday, the intensity of fighting in the area decreased.
Some Russian units also managed to break through to the village of Robotyne, "but most of them were destroyed," notes Deep State.
According to the Strategic Committee of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in the Robotyny region, the enemy "unsuccessfully tried to attack the positions of our troops 10 times."
Tarnavskyi also reports that in this area the Russian military "again switched to the tactics of small assault groups using several units of armored vehicles."
The Ukrainian military announced the downed fighter jets
Over the past few days, the Ukrainian military has reported the downing of six Russian warplanes.
Russia has not commented on these reports, and the Ukrainian Air Force has no independent confirmation of these claims.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, announced on his Telegram channel that on Monday in the eastern direction, Ukrainian forces shot down a Su-34 fighter-bomber and a Su-35S fighter-bomber, which can carry guided aerial bombs.
Earlier, the command of the Armed Forces reported the downing of three Russian planes — two Su-34s and one Su-35. Russian sources confirmed only the loss of the Su-35 fighter.
According to Western experts, air superiority and the active use of aviation allowed the Russian army to succeed in Avdiivka.
