Drought in Ukraine is threatening next year’s wheat crop, adding to the problems for farmers already reeling from weather and war. Bloomberg reports that while farmers still have time to improve conditions and make up for lost crops, the problems could shorten the planting dates for winter crops, which make up the bulk of annual production.
Although wheat prices are now well below their peak after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, they have risen in recent weeks, partly due to supply problems across the Black Sea. Ukraine’s wheat production has fallen by about a third from pre-war levels due to land losses following the invasion.
Sown areas in Ukraine have been about halved compared to last year. Heat and drought have left some fields too dry for crops such as canola. The USDA says temperatures 7℃ above normal in Ukraine in the second week of September “exacerbated the drought” for winter crops.
The difficult situation for farmers is being compounded by weather conditions and war. The regions now occupied by Moscow were once significant agricultural producers, while farmers in other regions of Ukraine face problems due to mine-contaminated land and labor shortages due to mobilization.
Forecasters say this week's rains could slightly increase soil moisture for Black Sea wheat, but much more rainfall is needed to ease drought concerns. However, farmers still have until October or November to catch up if the weather improves.
