The return of migrants to Ukraine is expected to be gradual and associated with a reduction in security risks, which is expected to begin in 2025. However, the duration of the war causes an increase in the risks of non-return of a large part of citizens.
According to a review conducted by the United Nations, the number of external migrants at the end of 2023 was 6.3 million people. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, this number increased by approximately 200,000 people over the course of a year. The NBU's forecast for 2024 foresees the continuation of the outflow of migrants, albeit small, about 100,000 people per year, due to the preservation of high security risks.
It is expected that approximately 400,000 people will return to Ukraine in 2025 after the reduction of security threats. It is noted that the restoration of housing, infrastructure and an increase in the number of jobs due to the development of the country's economy will contribute to a more active return in 2026, approximately 800 thousand people - this is what is indicated in the mentioned review.
Not all migrants plan to return to Ukraine. According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), those who have successfully adapted in recipient countries may refuse to return or postpone it indefinitely.
The risks of a slow return of migrants are exacerbated by the protracted nature of the war, the high intensity of hostilities and the shelling of civilian infrastructure. After the end of the conflict, there may be an intensification of emigration processes, especially due to the reunification of families after the lifting of restrictions on the departure of men. Difficulties in the economy can also make it difficult to return, even exacerbating existing difficulties.
According to the NBU report, these emigration and economic factors can affect the domestic labor supply and demand in Ukraine. Disparities in the labor market may increase, which will put pressure on businesses on wages and prices of goods and services. At the same time, weaker demand may also be partially offset.
According to information from the UN Refugee Agency, at the end of 2023, the number of refugees from Ukraine reached 6.357 million people worldwide. Of this total number, 5.954 million refugees were recorded in Europe, and 0.404 million - outside its borders. The forecast of the International Monetary Fund indicates that after the end of the war with Russia, approximately 2 million Ukrainian refugees may decide to stay abroad forever.
