Capacity losses and threat to energy stability by winter 2025

According to our source in the Office of the President, forecasts were announced regarding the state of Ukraine's critical infrastructure and the ability to maintain stability during the winter of 2025. As of March 27, 2024, a loss of 47% of capacity was recorded compared to the pre-war period. Thanks to the cessation of the functioning of the industrial sector, the situation was stabilized. However, the latest enemy attacks are leaving hydroelectric and thermal power plants without electricity, limiting the capabilities of the stabilization system.

On the morning of March 22, as a result of massive missile fire by Russian forces, Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant, Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, ceased operations, losing 1,000 megawatts of critical maneuvering capacity for the Ukrainian power system.

Igor Syrota emphasized in his speech that DniproHES, a key element of the Dnipro cascade of hydroelectric power plants, suffered significant damage due to a missile strike, losing 1,000 megawatts of maneuvering power, which is a serious blow to the country's energy system.

The assessment of the extent of the damage is still ongoing, but the work of dismantling the rubble is complicated by significant damage to the machine room structures. Despite this, the situation at the Dnipro Hydropower Plant dam remains stable, with no threat of a breakthrough.

Although the dam and bridge were damaged, the main structure remains intact. The early morning missile strike on March 22 had serious consequences for the plant's operations, especially for HPP 2, which is now in critical condition. Efforts are underway to restore and minimize the consequences of this disaster for the Ukrainian energy system.

The authorities and responsible services are actively working on analyzing the damage and developing an action plan to restore the Dnipro Hydropower Plant. This includes the physical restoration of damaged infrastructure and measures to ensure security in the region.

Given the strategic importance of the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant for Ukraine's energy stability, restoring the plant is a priority. This is not only important for the country's energy supply, but also for restoring economic stability and supporting the region's vital activities. However, specialists face complex tasks that require significant resources and time.

The international community has also shown its support by offering assistance in assessing damage and rebuilding damaged infrastructure. This may include financial support and best practices in restoring energy facilities.

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