No significant changes are expected in the currency market of Ukraine in the last week of autumn. As Taras Lesovy, head of the treasury department of Globus Bank, noted, the National Bank continues to successfully maintain balance, preventing sudden fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate.
Forecasts of experts
According to Lesovoy, the exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar will remain stable, despite the projected inflation of 10% at the end of 2024. It is expected that the official exchange rate of the dollar on December 1 will be within the range of 41.5-41.6 hryvnias/dollar, which means a potential increase of 1% compared to the beginning of November.
On the interbank market, exchange rate fluctuations, according to forecasts, will remain within the range of UAH 41.2-41.7/dollar. and 43.5-45 hryvnias/euro. The cash market will demonstrate similar dynamics with exchange rates in the range of UAH 41.2-41.8/dollar. and 45-47.5 UAH/euro.
Factors of influence
- The role of the National Bank : the regulator is ready to intervene in case of unmotivated demand or chaotic changes in the market, ensuring exchange rate stability.
- Seasonal factors : Discounts and preparations for the holidays will increase the number of currency sellers, which will balance demand.
- Decrease in supply from exporters : the period of tax payment will temporarily affect the currency supply, which will require more active involvement of the regulator.
Daily changes in interbank exchange rates are expected to be within 0.05-0.15 UAH, in banks - up to 0.1-0.2 UAH, and in exchange offices - up to 0.3 UAH. The weekly deviation can be no more than 1-1.5% of the initial rate.
