Economic experts predict that during 2025 the exchange rate of the dollar against the hryvnia will continue to demonstrate dynamics with periods of growth and decline. However, the general trend indicates a gradual weakening of the national currency to the level of UAH 46-47 per dollar . Such a forecast was announced by the head of the treasury department of "Globus Bank" Taras Lesovy.
The expert noted that now it is only possible to outline the main factors that can affect exchange rates.
"This is both the course of the war and the general economic situation - from the development of strategic industries to the level of welfare of citizens (the level of inflation deserves special attention), the amount of international financial assistance, the amount of international reserves, etc.," the banker said.
At the same time, Lesovy reminded that the weighted average exchange rate in the budget for 2025 is set at the level of UAH 45/dollar.
"That is, according to the analogy of 2024, this means that exchange rates will be variable with stages of growth and decline, but at the end of 2025 they may fluctuate in the range of UAH 46-47," he believes.
According to the expert, during 2024 the market experienced a mild devaluation with a gradual increase in exchange rates. At the same time, we can single out the peak periods when the dollar grew the most: March-April and May.
"During these three spring months, the official exchange rate of the dollar jumped by as much as 6% - the rate increased from UAH 38.04 (as of March 1) to UAH 40.45 (as of June 1)," Lesovy said.
On December 30, the National Bank of Ukraine set the official exchange rate of the dollar to the hryvnia at the level of UAH 41.94/dollar, i.e. the hryvnia weakened by 10 kopecks compared to the previous indicator.
According to the data on the website of the NBU, the official exchange rate of the euro for Monday is set at the level of 43.75 hryvnias for one euro, that is, the hryvnia dropped immediately by 24 kopecks.
