Forecast of events at the front if Russian troops capture Avdiivka: conclusions of ISW analysts

According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War in the United States, Russian troops in the Avdiiv direction suffered serious losses, which creates serious obstacles for their further advancement. Even if Avdiivka is captured, the occupiers will face the need for a long recovery and rest before taking further action.

Over the past few months, Russian forces have conducted a local offensive operation near Avdiivka, but only recently managed to advance through the city after numerous assaults and mass attacks. Losses among equipment and personnel were significant.

It was noted that the Ukrainian defense forces masterfully use the defensive fortifications around Avdiivka, which complicates the task of the Russian troops. The nearest large population centers are located at a considerable distance to the west of the city, which makes the rapid advance of Russian troops unlikely.

Analysts believe that even with the possible capture of Avdiivka, it will be difficult for Russian troops to continue their offensive. A long period of recovery and consolidation of resources is required before further action. This may create limited tactical advantages, but in no way guarantees a successful continuation of the offensive.

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