Until the end of August, experts do not expect drastic changes in the dollar exchange rate, pointing to the absence of significant negative news for Ukraine and the end of the holiday season. Such a forecast is connected with a stable situation on the foreign exchange market, which is maintained thanks to the actions of the National Bank and the absence of significant economic shocks.
Andriy Zablovskyi, head of the Secretariat of the Council of Entrepreneurs under the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, commented to TSN that significant exchange rate fluctuations are not expected until the beginning of September. According to him, the regulator will not allow significant jumps in the exchange rate to occur due to supply and demand control. Zablovsky also added that the hryvnia may even strengthen this week, which is due to increased demand at the end of the month, when companies are actively paying taxes and preparing for salary payments. This increases the supply of currency on the interbank market, which, in turn, leads to a depreciation of the dollar and euro.
Oleg Pendzyn, a member of the Economic Discussion Club, emphasized that the beginning of the academic year can also temporarily lower the dollar rate. According to him, parents of schoolchildren and students will actively exchange currency to purchase the necessary goods for education, which will also contribute to the reduction of the exchange rate.
Taras Lesovy, head of the treasury department of "Globus Bank", believes that the end of the summer on the foreign exchange market will pass without any particular exchange rate fluctuations. He predicts that the corridor of permissible currency fluctuations will remain at the level of UAH 41-41.7/dollar. on interbank and 41-42 hryvnias/dollar. in the cash market.
Analysts of the investment company ICU also updated their forecast for the dollar exchange rate until the end of the year, raising it from UAH 42.3/dollar to UAH 42.6/dollar. However, these changes are expected already in the longer term, and for now the market remains stable.
In general, experts agree that August ends without sharp exchange rate fluctuations, and a slight strengthening of the hryvnia is quite possible. However, the situation may change with the beginning of autumn, when economic processes become more active after the end of vacations and the beginning of the new academic year.
