US President Joe Biden has agreed to strengthen immigration policy, taking this step to avoid criticism from Republicans and ensure financial support for Ukraine. According to The Wall Street Journal, the agreement currently being worked on by the US Senate includes restrictions on the ability of migrants to apply for asylum at the US southern border. However, this compromise faces difficulties due to tough demands from Republicans in the House of Representatives.
In connection with this, a logical question arises whether the Ukrainian military-industrial complex will be able to meet the needs of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the event of a delay in the agreement between the Democrats and the Republicans. At the same time, it is noted that in the presence of arms supplies from Britain and EU countries, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can count on alternative sources of support.
President Biden, speaking with a sense of restrained optimism, held a meeting with congressmen in which he called for the immediate lifting of the blockade on additional support to Ukraine. According to the White House, he expressed the importance of immediate assistance to Ukraine, including the provision of air defense systems and artillery. The president stressed that any delay on the part of Congress could threaten the national security of the United States, the stability of NATO and the world order.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has raised the possibility of discussing a bilateral agreement on security on the southern border and financial support for Ukraine next week. For his part, the representative of the Democrats in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, expressed optimism about reaching an agreement, which was noted as a certain step forward.
The strong optimism reflected in the new developments is of decisive importance for Ukraine for obvious reasons: the United States remains the key military and technical donor for Ukraine today.
It is worth noting that support from the United States constitutes a large part of the military aid intended for Ukraine. Starting in February 2022, Washington annually allocates from 24 to 27 billion dollars for these purposes. In comparison, European partners invest significantly less. Nevertheless, the support received from them is enough to ensure defense capability, but conducting active operations and liberating the occupied territories without a significant contribution from the US may prove to be an extremely difficult task.
Recent news indicates growing support from European allies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Berlin's intention to provide Ukraine with military equipment worth 7 billion euros this year. On the same day, it became known that France plans to provide Ukraine with 50 aerial bombs every month until the end of 2024, as well as 40 long-range SCALP missiles. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu confirmed the increase in the supply of artillery ammunition.
Such actions of high representatives of the European Union are a manifestation of support for Ukraine in the face of an aggravated geopolitical situation. It should be noted that French President Emmanuel Macron personally confirmed the supply of 40 long-range missiles and "several hundred bombs" to Ukraine, and also announced his intention to visit Kyiv to negotiate a bilateral agreement on security guarantees. These steps demonstrate the joint desire of the European Union and the United States to ensure stability and security in the region, preventing a possible threat from the Kremlin.
On the other hand, the question of why to detail the volume of arms deliveries, which can actually become an informational message for the Kremlin, remains relevant.
"We cannot determine what data to report to the French president and what not. I'm sure he understands what he's talking about and why. This is probably only the visible part of the iceberg, under which more may be hidden. For example, 40 Scalp missiles is already a big step to defeat the "fat" targets of the Russians in the occupied territories. Regarding US aid, optimism remains, since one of the key arguments of the White House is that a significant part of the funds allocated to aid Ukraine is directed to the American military-industrial complex for the production of weapons, which then go to Pentagon warehouses, instead of directly to Kyiv. , - notes Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political columnist of the "Information Resistance" group.
The expert also emphasizes that, despite the political turbulence in the USA, this year there will probably be no problems with the delivery of missiles for the Patriot and HIMARS air defense systems to Ukraine. Corresponding stocks are already in the warehouses of the European Union countries, and similar missiles are also in the arsenal of South Korea and Japan.
An important aspect is the initiative of Ukraine and its partners to adapt Western missiles to Soviet launchers. One example is the hybrid complex under the general name FrankenSAM, where Western missiles are combined with Soviet air defense systems, in particular "Buk". Such hybrid systems are superior to their "parent" counterparts for a number of reasons, providing more effective defeat of the enemy.
“Using these systems, it becomes extremely difficult for Russian aircraft to approach the battle line, as they cannot determine exactly which missile will be launched in their direction. Thus, Ukrainian air defense systems become more effective, and it is more difficult for the Russians to adapt to the situation in battle and look for weak points," noted military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan.
Tensions are gradually rising in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as these countries become more cautious in defense matters due to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. It is clear that precisely these nations can become the target of aggression from the Kremlin, if the Western allies do not make a strategic miscalculation and cannot protect Ukraine from defeat.
In their preparations for possible conflicts, European countries are not only increasing their own military efforts, but also using their military-industrial complexes for commercial purposes. According to the latest reports, most of the weapons manufactured in Bulgaria are intended for Ukraine, as Defense Minister Todor Tagaryov said.
The main emphasis is on the production of ammunition, small arms and light weapons, a direction that has existed in Bulgaria since the time of the USSR and is now actively functioning, working around the clock. The Minister of Defense notes that a significant part of these products is sent to Ukraine, sometimes through intermediaries.
He also pointed to plans to expand production, including NATO standards for ammunition. In this context, Bulgarian companies applied for investments from the European Commission within the framework of the ASAP program to support the production of ammunition in the European Union.
In addition, Bulgaria has expressed interest in participating in the F-16 coalition and provides political, diplomatic and humanitarian support to Ukraine. The country also extended the program of assistance to Ukrainian refugees until the end of April 2024.
However, Minister Tagaryov admits that for logistical reasons, Bulgaria has not yet handed over 100 armored personnel carriers from police warehouses to Ukraine, noting that work in this direction continues.
"Strategically, our goal is to achieve a certain level of autonomy in providing ourselves with ammunition and weapons. This level is defined not as complete autonomy, which is often characteristic of authoritarian regimes, but as the capacity for self-reliance in democratic states where the public and private sectors coexist. States that run state-owned defense companies are constantly compromising on efficiency and governance. Therefore, our strategic goal is to achieve at least a closed cycle of production of certain types of ammunition, in order to minimize dependence on foreign policy circumstances," says Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center.
Last year, Ukraine offered to create an international Alliance of Defense Industries, which unites world manufacturers of weapons and military equipment. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented this initiative at the International Forum of Defense Industries in Kyiv last September. At that time, representatives of more than 30 countries and 252 defense companies joined the Alliance.
According to Zelenskyi, Ukraine already produces 155 mm caliber artillery guns and projectiles according to NATO standards and has developed its own anti-tank systems. The main goal of the Alliance is to support the international legal order and protect against any aggression.
By the end of the forum, 38 companies from 19 countries had already joined the Alliance. Ukraine has concluded 20 agreements with foreign partners, including the production of drones, repair and creation of armored vehicles and ammunition. It is noted that cooperation involves the exchange of technologies, joint production and supply of components.
Valentyn Badrak, head of the Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research Center, points out that the main priorities for Ukraine include the production of missiles, drones and ammunition. It is noted that Ukraine has the ability to produce a significant number of Neptune-type missiles, and projects such as FrankenSAM testify to the high level of technical development of missile enterprises. Experts admit that with the help of European partners in 2023, it is possible to achieve sufficient effectiveness to deter Russian invaders, but emphasize the need for support from the United States in the event of mass mobilization or large-scale military operations.
