US President Joe Biden has agreed to toughen immigration policies, taking the step to avoid criticism from Republicans and secure financial support for Ukraine. According to The Wall Street Journal, the agreement currently being worked on by the US Senate includes restrictions on migrants' ability to seek asylum at the southern US border. However, the compromise faces difficulties due to tough demands from Republicans in the House of Representatives.
In this regard, a logical question arises whether the Ukrainian military-industrial complex will be able to meet the needs of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the event of a delay in the agreement between Democrats and Republicans. It is noted that with the availability of arms supplies from Britain and EU countries, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can count on alternative sources of support.
President Biden, speaking with cautious optimism, held a meeting with members of Congress in which he called for the immediate lifting of the block on additional support for Ukraine. According to the White House, he expressed the importance of immediate assistance to Ukraine, including the provision of air defense systems and artillery. The president emphasized that any delay by Congress could threaten U.S. national security, the stability of NATO, and the world order.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has raised the possibility of discussing a bilateral agreement on southern border security and financial support for Ukraine next week. For his part, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has expressed optimism about reaching an agreement, which he hailed as a step forward.
The strong optimism evident in new developments is of crucial importance to Ukraine for obvious reasons: to date, the United States remains a key military-technical donor to Ukraine.
It is worth noting that US support makes up a large part of the military assistance allocated to Ukraine. Starting from February 2022, Washington annually allocates from 24 to 27 billion dollars for these purposes. In comparison, European partners invest significantly less. Nevertheless, the support received from them is enough to ensure defense capabilities, but conducting active operations and liberating occupied territories without a significant contribution from the US may prove to be an extremely difficult task.
Recent news indicates growing support from European allies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Berlin’s intention to provide Ukraine with military equipment worth 7 billion euros this year. On the same day, it became known that France plans to provide Ukraine with 50 aerial bombs per month until the end of 2024, as well as 40 long-range SCALP missiles. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu confirmed the increase in the supply of artillery ammunition.
Such actions by senior representatives of the European Union are a manifestation of support for Ukraine in the face of the aggravated geopolitical situation. It should be noted that French President Emmanuel Macron personally confirmed the supply of 40 long-range missiles and “several hundred bombs” to Ukraine, and also announced his intention to visit Kyiv to agree on a bilateral agreement on security guarantees. These steps demonstrate the common desire of the European Union and the United States to ensure stability and security in the region, preventing a possible threat from the Kremlin.
On the other hand, the question remains relevant as to why detail the volume of arms supplies, which could actually become an information message for the Kremlin.
“We cannot determine which data to report to the French president and which not. I am sure he understands what he is saying and why. What was said probably concerns only the visible part of the iceberg, under which there may be more. For example, 40 Scalp missiles are already a big step towards hitting the “bold” Russian targets in the occupied territories. Regarding US aid, optimism remains, since one of the key arguments of the White House is that a significant part of the funds allocated for aid to Ukraine is sent to the American military-industrial complex for the production of weapons, which then go to the Pentagon warehouses, instead of directly to Kyiv,” notes Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political observer of the Information Resistance group.
The expert also emphasizes that, despite the political turbulence in the United States, there are likely to be no problems with the supply of Patriot and HIMARS missiles to Ukraine this year. Corresponding stocks are already in warehouses in the European Union countries, and similar missiles are also in the arsenals of South Korea and Japan.
An important aspect is the initiative of Ukraine and its partners to adapt Western missiles to Soviet launchers. One example is the hybrid complex under the general name FrankenSAM, where Western missiles are combined with Soviet air defense systems, in particular the Buk. Such hybrid systems surpass their “parent” counterparts for a number of reasons, providing more effective destruction of the enemy.
“Using these systems, it becomes extremely difficult for Russian aircraft to approach the line of combat contact, since they cannot accurately determine which missile will be launched in their direction. Thus, Ukrainian air defense becomes more effective, and it is more difficult for the Russians to adapt to the combat situation and look for weak points,” noted military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan.
Tensions are gradually rising in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia as these countries become more cautious about defense due to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. It is clear that these nations could become targets of aggression from the Kremlin if Western allies do not make a strategic miscalculation and fail to protect Ukraine from defeat.
In their efforts to prepare for potential conflicts, European countries are not only ramping up their own military efforts, but are also using their military-industrial complexes for commercial purposes. According to recent reports, most of the weapons manufactured in Bulgaria are destined for Ukraine, Defense Minister Todor Tagaryov said.
The main emphasis is on the production of ammunition, small arms and light weapons, a sector that has existed in Bulgaria since the times of the USSR and is now actively functioning, working around the clock. The Minister of Defense notes that a significant part of these products is sent to Ukraine, sometimes through intermediaries.
He also pointed to plans to expand production, including NATO standards for ammunition. In this context, Bulgarian companies have applied for investment from the European Commission under the ASAP program to support ammunition production in the European Union.
In addition, Bulgaria has expressed interest in participating in the F-16 coalition and provides political, diplomatic and humanitarian support to Ukraine. The country has also extended its program of assistance to Ukrainian refugees until the end of April 2024.
However, Minister Tagaryov admits that for logistical reasons, Bulgaria has not yet transferred 100 APCs from police depots to Ukraine, noting that work in this direction is ongoing.
“In strategic terms, our goal is to achieve a certain level of autonomy in providing ourselves with ammunition and weapons. This level is defined not as complete autonomy, which is often characteristic of authoritarian regimes, but as the ability to be independent in democratic states where the public and private sectors coexist. States that run state defense companies constantly compromise on efficiency and management. Therefore, our strategic goal is to achieve at least a closed production cycle for certain types of ammunition in order to minimize dependence on foreign policy circumstances,” notes Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of the Razumkov Center’s foreign policy and international security programs.
Last year, Ukraine proposed creating an international Defense Industries Alliance, which would bring together global manufacturers of weapons and military equipment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented the initiative at the International Defense Industries Forum in Kyiv in September last year. At that time, representatives of more than 30 countries and 252 defense companies had joined the Alliance.
According to Zelensky, Ukraine already produces 155 mm artillery guns and shells according to NATO standards and has developed its own anti-tank systems. The Alliance's main goal is to maintain international law and order and protect against any aggression.
By the end of the forum, 38 companies from 19 countries had already joined the Alliance. Ukraine had concluded 20 agreements with foreign partners, including the production of drones, repair and creation of armored vehicles and ammunition. It was noted that the cooperation involves the exchange of technologies, joint production and supply of components.
Valentyn Badrak, head of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, indicates that the main priorities for Ukraine include the production of missiles, drones and ammunition. It is noted that Ukraine has the ability to produce a significant number of Neptune-type missiles, and projects such as FrankenSAM indicate a high level of technical development of missile enterprises. Experts recognize that with the assistance of European partners in 2023 it is possible to achieve sufficient efficiency to deter Russian invaders, but emphasize the need for support from the United States in the event of mass mobilization or large-scale military operations.
