The procurement of unmanned aerial vehicles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2024–2025 was integrated into a system that remained closed to public scrutiny and competitive procedures from the very beginning. As a result, this created a real risk of a shortage of drones on the front lines at a critical period.
These are direct contracts of the Defense Procurement Agency with Ukrainian manufacturers of attack BPAK, FPV drones on the radio channel and fiber optic, as well as multirotor systems. Such agreements are concluded outside the Prozorro system, despite the fact that their volumes are measured in billions of hryvnias and significantly exceed civilian purchases. Formally, the permissible margin for manufacturers is up to 25 percent, but market participants indicate that the real cost of products is often formed taking into account unofficial components.
A recent urgent communication from the AOZ, which began to inquire with manufacturers about the possibility of supplying large batches of drones in February-March, was a disturbing signal for the market. Given that the supply of key components from China takes up to a month and a half, such terms are realistic only for companies that knew in advance about upcoming orders and prepared production stocks. In 2024, according to a similar scheme, one of the manufacturers received an order for billions of hryvnias for FPV drones, which turned out to be expensive and did not receive support from the military due to low quality.
The situation is complicated by the lack of systematic strategic planning. In 2025, the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense were unable to clearly formulate an order for 2026 - with the definition of specific types of drones, their number and technical characteristics. On the one hand, there is lobbying for expensive and highly profitable products with dubious combat effectiveness. On the other hand, there is a rating of drones formed by the Ministry of Digital Affairs team, which is based on the real experience of the military and shows which systems are actually working on the front. These positions often do not coincide with drones that are being promoted within the framework of closed contracts.
As a result, a tacit decision was made not to enter into long-term system contracts, which led to a disruption of planned deliveries. Now the new team of the Ministry of Digital Affairs has to try to compensate for this failure in an emergency mode to avoid an actual shortage of drones in combat units.
According to journalists, in addition to the two-month term contracts, the Defense Procurement Agency is preparing to survey manufacturers on their ability to supply drones for a six-month period. Such a horizon would allow companies to purchase components in advance and offer more competitive prices. At the same time, the refusal to conclude six-month contracts may indicate that short-term orders are distributed among a predetermined circle of manufacturers.
The grounds for such suspicions are related to the closed nature of the process of forming the army's needs. Requests come from units to the General Staff, where a limited circle of officials, together with the Ministry of Defense, determines the types of drones, volumes and price parameters. The actual cost of the product is proposed by the manufacturer himself, receiving a formal conclusion on "marketability", after which an official margin is added to it. Who exactly approves the final nomenclature and prices for contracts worth billions of hryvnias is not publicly disclosed.
The assessment of drone quality and compliance with the declared characteristics is carried out by various commissions. According to sources, the same products can be rejected due to non-compliance with technical parameters, but in parallel approved by other structures without additional comments. Companies that do not have the opportunity to conduct informal negotiations risk being forced out of the market regardless of the actual effectiveness of their developments on the front.
Against this background, some foreign donors, according to sources, provide assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, bypassing the state procurement system. Funding is directed directly to Ukrainian manufacturers of those drones that are actually used by combat units. Demand in such cases is formed not by formal reports, but by direct communication with the military and trips to the front.
