The Kremlin is attacking again — this time not with missiles, but with negotiations. Political scientist Andriy Myselyuk warns: behind the scenes of loud statements about peace, Putin is preparing a new special operation — a special negotiation operation (SPO). Its goal is not to reach a compromise, but to impose the Kremlin's scenario for ending the war on the world. And Istanbul should become a key platform for the implementation of this plan.
With Trump's possible return to the White House looming, the Russian dictator is once again trying to exploit his weaknesses, as he did in Helsinki in 2018. The world saw a humiliated American president, and Putin emerged from the meeting victorious. And now he is ready for revenge — against the entire West, with Ukraine at the forefront of this special operation.
PUTIN LAUNCHES SPO — SPECIAL NEGOTIATION OPERATION
In order to understand the scale of these dangers, it is necessary to understand the key thing from the very beginning: this is not a story about diplomacy, Putin is preparing a large-scale special services operation in Istanbul. The task of this operation is to separate the main opponents (Ukraine, the USA, Europe), make it impossible for them to coordinate their opposition to Moscow, and impose their approaches to ending the war in Ukraine on the key actor - President Trump. With the subsequent implementation of these approaches in practice.
I once laid out on the shelves before their meeting in Helsinki in 2018 what tools and means Putin would use to outwit Trump and what vulnerable points of the American president he would put pressure on. And so it turned out - then their sparring ended in a shameful defeat for Trump.
Since then, the experienced hebdist Putin has studied Trump even better, with all his vulnerabilities and weaknesses. And, without a doubt, he is ready for a new sparring match with him (both in person and in absentia) in Istanbul. In order to repeat his success in Helsinki with him.
But what is more important for us now is what serious threats have arisen for our country after the sudden and inevitable direct negotiations with the Russian Federation on the terms of peace this Thursday in Istanbul.
So, here is a list of the five biggest threats.
- The threat of finding yourself in negotiations with Moscow alone without the effective support of European allies.
- Simultaneous pressure on President Zelenskyy from Putin and Trump so that, in agreeing on a path to ending the “hot phase” of the war and the war as a whole, Ukraine quickly agrees to a compromise acceptable to Russia (and problematic for Ukraine) without receiving reliable security guarantees.
- The US agreement to partially lift sanctions against the Russian Federation as a reward for Putin's goodwill and "peacemaking", the Russian president's willingness to make humanitarian concessions that are not fundamental for the Russian Federation (exchange of prisoners, access of representatives of certain international organizations to the front line, etc.) before the terms of peace are fixed and a clear mechanism for monitoring possible violations of these terms by Russia is determined.
- The Trump administration's agreement to end or significantly reduce support for Ukraine as a reward for Putin's willingness to support the introduction of a ceasefire - with the agreement to take effect immediately after the ceasefire takes effect.
- The Russians in Istanbul carried out a series of provocations to sharply disrupt the negotiation process, simultaneously with large-scale propaganda and media campaigns accusing Ukraine of disrupting these negotiations.
This is, of course, not an exhaustive list of the serious threats and challenges that have arisen before our country after Putin and Trump squeezed the Istanbul negotiation track on May 15 last weekend.
The time to prepare effective responses to them is very limited.
Given that official Kyiv has many years of experience in defending Ukraine's interests in the context of war with Russia (starting in 2014), there is reason to hope that our negotiators in Istanbul will be able to thwart yet another, albeit competent, but still stereotypical, special operation by Putin's Soviet-style special agent.
Just as our Defense Forces, with the support of the entire society, managed to thwart his special military operation.
