In the two years since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the nature of the war and predictions about its further development have undergone significant changes.
In the first year of the war, Ukraine hoped for support and military supplies from the USA and Europe, preparing for the expected offensive by Russian troops. However, over time, the situation changed, and the war entered the stage of positional struggle. Western support decreased, and Russian troops, having received reinforcements, expanded their positions in several front areas.
Despite these changes, the conflict continues in the format of a war of attrition, where the front remains largely unchanged. The question of what may happen next and what factors may influence the course of this war remains open.
Drones are a new weapon
One of the new elements in the war has become unmanned systems, which are massively used by both sides. In particular, in the initial stages of the conflict, Turkish Bayraktar drones played a key role in conducting reconnaissance and attacks on Russian troops.
Later, small kamikaze drones, reconnaissance or attack copters appeared on the front on both sides, which became an effective tool for both sides. Russia and Ukraine have introduced medium-sized drones that can strike hundreds of kilometers behind enemy lines.
Recently, another trend has appeared - FPV drones, which have become a real problem for both sides. These are high-speed drones that the operator controls through glasses or a first-person screen. At the end of January near Novomykhailivka, Ukrainian operators for the first time were able to repel an attack by Russian armored vehicles almost exclusively with the help of FPV drones.
At sea, unmanned boats used by the Armed Forces Navy forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to move part of the ships from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, limiting their actions. Since February 24, 2022, such Ukrainian boats have damaged and sunk several Russian ships, including the large amphibious assault ship Caesar Kunikov, and severely damaged the Kerch Bridge.
The main advantages of these systems with remote or autonomous control are their cheapness and availability, which made them popular, as well as their efficiency.
In the 1940s, remote-controlled aircraft and tanks already existed, but only with mass production, affordable prices and reliability did they become a serious threat to infantry and equipment on land and ships at sea.
Currently, Russia and Ukraine are actively purchasing components for aerial drones in China, sometimes competing for batches of goods.
Many experts are debating the fact that drones, both naval and aerial, are changing the nature of modern warfare. However, some opinions are too optimistic due to the novelty effect. The appearance of a new effective weapon always gives hope for an easy victory.
However, this does not fully reflect reality. Drones cannot capture territory; this requires infantry and armored vehicles. Thus, traditional types of weapons are still an integral part of military operations.
In particular, with the advent of drones, the means of electronic warfare (EW) began to be actively developed, as well as rapid-fire artillery with projectiles that can work at a long distance were improved. Although such means existed even before that, but with the advent of drones, their improvement became extremely urgent.
One of the newest directions in the development of drones is the use of autonomous optical-electronic target recognition systems, which do not require a signal or a navigator, and, accordingly, cannot be suppressed by radio-electronic combat systems. In addition, the drones learn to operate in a swarm, which makes it difficult to fight them.
At sea, unmanned boats have also attracted attention for their effectiveness, stimulating debate about their role in naval affairs. However, such boats have their limitations, such as a small power reserve and limited sailing range.
Even if the unmanned boats used by Ukraine can operate at a distance of more than 800 kilometers, this may not be enough to create a full-fledged fleet in distant sea areas.
Large ships can be successfully defended with the help of rapid-fire artillery, machine guns and thermal imaging at close approaches. And radars, patrol planes and sea patrols will help to detect the attack of maritime drones from a long distance.
Although countermeasures against maritime and aerial drones are known, for now unmanned and unmanned systems have the upper hand. Their mass use makes it difficult to resist.
Unmanned boats have already forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to reduce activity. Ukraine invests heavily in their development, and attacks are becoming more frequent.
A side that can create a large army of drones - much larger than now, will be able to change the situation on the front, greatly increasing the losses of the enemy, especially in technology.
Fighters
Ukraine is making efforts to obtain Western fighter jets from 2022.
Denmark and the Netherlands have now pledged to supply more than 60 F-16s. Ukrainian pilots have already started training to fly these planes, but the exact date of completion of training and the start of their use is still unknown. This will probably happen in the spring or summer of 2024. Previously, the possibility of supplying the Ukrainian army with Swedish JAS 39 Gripen fighters was considered, which also meet the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - they are modern aircraft that can use a variety of European-made ammunition.
While Ukrainian officials say the planes are critical to effectively countering Russia, details about their use and operational plans remain confidential.
Fighters can be used to strike land or sea targets, air combat, anti-aircraft defense, intercept cruise missiles and drones, suppress air defenses and perform other tasks. These opportunities are extremely important for Ukraine.
For example, during the intensification of military operations in Avdiivka, Russian troops received the help of VKS fighter-bombers, which carried out attacks with high-explosive aerial bombs on targets on the front lines.
If the Armed Forces of Ukraine had fighters with air-to-air missiles of the appropriate range, they could effectively prevent such bombings.
For example, during the summer offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Russian Ka-52 helicopters encountered significant resistance from the Ukrainian aviation, which made their operations difficult.
Ukrainian fighter jets could also provide support to the ground forces of the Armed Forces by striking Russian targets.
Some experts doubt the importance of the appearance of even a few dozen such aircraft in the war. However, in the presence of a significant number, they can become a significant factor.
One of the Russian aviation experts, who later remained anonymous, said in a conversation with the BBC a few months ago that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could become a serious force in opposition to the Russian Aerospace Forces if Ukraine has at least 200 fighter jets.
An important factor in this context is quantity. A large number of fighters can significantly change the situation in a military theater of operations.
Much will depend on what weapons will be delivered along with the aircraft. The American F-16A fighters, which are in service with the Danish and Dutch air forces, are not the newest machines. Some of them were commissioned in the first half of the 1980s. This means that their radars and other onboard systems are outdated. However, they can be modernized.
Ukrainian pilots have been using fairly old MiGs and Sus since the beginning of the war, and the F-16A is an effective aircraft that is superior to the MiG-29 in many respects.
In addition, a large number of Western fighters would play a significant role - it would at least somehow compensate for obsolescence.
Another important aspect is the ability of pilots to effectively use aircraft in combat, as well as the planning of operations by the headquarters of aviation units.
If all these factors coincide, the course of the war will change — Russian aviation will feel even less confident near the front line.
Foreign military aid
Delays in the supply of Western ammunition and weapons have already led to the weakening of the Ukrainian army at the front.
According to the analytical material published on February 16 by the Institute of World Economy of the University of Kiel, until this moment the promises of the United States for the provision of aid and real military supplies to Ukraine have, in fact, stopped due to the lack of new aid packages in the US Congress.
At the same time, aid from the European Union continues to grow, although, according to the institute's analysts, there is a gap in Europe between promises and actual aid, including ammunition.
According to the report, as of January 15, 2024, the European Union and its member states allocated a total of 144 billion euros in aid to Ukraine, but of this amount, only 77 billion euros were spent on specific purposes, in particular on ammunition.
Last March, the EU approved a plan to deliver one million 155 mm shells to Ukraine within a year. These shells are used in all heavy artillery of NATO countries.
Now the Ukrainian army is already experiencing a shortage of shells, and this may affect military operations at the front. If the US is unable to resolve the political issue of aid to Ukraine, and European countries fail to compensate for the lack of American supplies, this may cause further deterioration of the situation.
Despite the use of high-tech weapons systems, the military conflict in Ukraine remains a war of numbers, and therefore any reduction in resources for warfare can have a negative impact on the situation.
Mobilization
In a war of numbers, the number of groups at the front plays no less important role than the availability of sufficient ammunition.
Currently, the situation at the front is characterized by stability, since neither side can carry out a decisive offensive, mainly due to a lack of personnel and equipment. This applies to both Russia and Ukraine, and may lead to a new wave of mobilization.
Previously, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the possibility of mobilizing 450-500 thousand people in 2024. However, this initiative still needs justification from the military command.
Ukraine is considering a draft law simplifying mobilization and lowering the age threshold for conscripts under 25. However, the adoption of this law is still being clarified due to the large number of proposed amendments.
The possibility of such large-scale mobilization in Ukraine would make it possible to recruit new units and demobilize military personnel who have been participating in the war since the beginning of the conflict.
In Russia, there are also problems with the size of the army, although this issue is not reflected in legislative initiatives. The protest movement of the wives of those mobilized in Russia shows the distrust of the population in the authorities, which can lead to further mobilization.
Mobilization is necessary for both the Ukrainian and Russian armies, as the front-line units need regular rest and replenishment of the military due to physical and psychological exhaustion.
An increase in the number of troops at the front can lead to increased tension in the war zone and affect the course of the war in both countries.
Economy
While Europe is undergoing restructuring and the slow reorganization of the military-industrial complex, the Russian economy has shown some positive indicators. In 2023, it even started to grow.
One of the reasons for this stability is significant budget expenditures. The government directs large sums of money to the needs of the war, and this money is distributed throughout the economy.
Russia is also investing in expanding military production. Many factories have increased the number of shifts and are building or have already built new production facilities.
At the same time, Russia purchases weapons abroad, such as Iranian drones, and also purchases ammunition from the DPRK.
However, such a militarized economy, which depends on budget money, is already starting to overheat and probably will not be able to grow at the same pace for a long time. The Central Bank of Russia announced this already in 2023.
European officials, who did not want to disclose their names, told the BBC that the European Union in its strategy of confrontation with Russia is not hoping so much for sanctions, but for the fact that the Russian economy will not withstand the pressure caused by the war.
"While the Russian economy is still afloat, it is already clear that the costs of the war began to consume a significant part of the budget, which previously went to social needs, education and medicine. However, we have a large reserve of time - until the middle of 2025, but then we expect a serious financial crisis in the Russian economy," said one of them.
The economic crisis itself will not change the course of the war, but it may affect the desire of the Russian leadership to continue the conflict.
Currently, the final outcome of the war, as well as its beginning, depends on political decisions.
