In recent months, inflation in Ukraine has accelerated and approached 5%. However, according to forecasts, it will continue to grow, and will begin to decrease already next year.
The Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Andrii Pyshnyi during the briefing noted that thanks to the balanced interest rate and exchange rate policy of the NBU, as well as the weakening of external inflationary pressure, inflation will be able to slow down to 6.6% in 2025. In 2026, inflation should return to the NBU target of 5% against the background of the gradual normalization of the functioning of the economy and the improvement of the situation in the energy sector.
Andriy Pishnyi also emphasized that the economic recovery of Ukraine will continue, although it will be limited due to the impact of the war, in particular due to significant damage to the energy system. In the first half of 2024, economic growth continued, but slowed due to Russia's large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure. Despite this, business partially adapted to permanent power outages, and the stable operation of the sea corridor supported economic activity.
"Despite the shortage of electricity and smaller harvests compared to last year, the NBU even slightly improved the economic growth forecast for this year - up to 3.7%. This is due to the better results of the first quarter and the expected expansion of budget incentives, as well as the development of distributed generation, in particular with the support of large-scale lending programs," Pyshnyi said.
According to the chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine, the gradual normalization of economic conditions, the maintenance of soft fiscal policy, the development of export routes and the revival of external demand will contribute to the acceleration of real GDP growth rates to 4-5% in 2025-2026.
According to the State Statistics Service, consumer inflation in Ukraine in June was 4.8% on an annual basis, accelerating from 3.3% in May. Inflation on the consumer market in June compared to May amounted to 2.2%, since the beginning of the year - 4.3%.
According to the Macroeconomic and Monetary Survey of the NBU, consumer inflation accelerated in June due to the exhaustion of last year's harvest and the fall in the hryvnia exchange rate. However, the further decrease in product prices was due to a greater supply due to warm weather at the beginning of the year, as well as due to last year's large harvest and the reorientation of producers to the domestic market.
