The article by political analyst Hennadiy Druzenko examines the culminating stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war, when both sides are on the brink and facing systemic failures. Druzenko analyzes why these failures are due to both external pressure and internal inefficiency, and how the outcome of further negotiations will depend on this.
THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR: THE CULMINATION
It seems that the Russian-Ukrainian war has entered the climax stage. Climaxes, when both sides are unwilling or unable to proceed to total war, which requires maximum mobilization and straining of all forces and resources.
In the conditions of the current (non-total) war, it seems that both systems (both Ukrainian and Russian) are working on the edge. It looks like both are starting to have system crashes. Moreover, these failures are due to both external pressure and the inefficiency of the systems themselves.
First of all, both sides lack people at the front. Both lack a real mobilization of society for victory. Both are dominated by those who prefer to win with someone else's hands. Half a million are fighting, dozens are cheering or watching. Allies and partners on both sides are persistently pushing for an end to the war. Both have systemic energy problems. For both, military service still remains a tax on poverty and decency. Corruption flourishes in both. In both countries, the war catastrophically reduces the chance for a decent future.
We will win thanks to motivation, social consolidation, national support of the Defense Forces, support of the West, innovative approaches. Russia takes scale, Soviet weapons stockpiles, greater systematicity and brutality.
Probably, both Zelensky and Putin would prefer to fight to the victorious end. But both know that without the total mobilization of their societies and the transfer of the entire system to military lines, it (the system) may collapse. Therefore, within the current paradigm, the war has reached its peak.
And now the key question is: under what conditions will the parties be ready to cease fire? It is clear that the borders of 1991 and the four regions of Ukraine + Crimea are impossible "wishes" that the parties do not have the resources to achieve. And they realize it.
Therefore, the time has come for bluffing, maximum tension of will and cold-blooded calculation of the most advantageous negotiating position. As well as reserves that can be thrown into battle as a last argument. And it depends on the coolness and skill of the negotiators whether we will get decent conditions for the end of the current stage of the war, or whether we will lose much more than we could.
Armies only create a negotiating framework for the political process. The conditions for the end of the war and the post-war regime are determined by politicians. And here, for some reason, I am very worried. Guess why?
