Currently, the situation in the south of Ukraine, in particular in Odesa and the Odesa region, looks critical due to the increased activity of Russian troops on the Kinburn spit and in the Dnieper delta. The Russian army is increasing its forces in the region, which creates new threats to strategic objects and civil infrastructure in the south of Ukraine, in particular Odesa. How real is the threat of enemy forces landing in Odesa? Can Russia cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea with the help of Transnistria? Let's look at these questions through the lens of expert analysis.
One of the most dangerous aspects of the situation is the activation of Russian forces on the Kinburn Spit. This strategic facility, located only 60 km from Odessa, can become a base for missile strikes on the city and its port infrastructure. As Ivan Stupak, a former employee of the SBU, emphasizes, Russia aims to control the Kinburn Spit not only to protect Crimea, but also to implement plans to attack Odessa. Missiles, in particular S-300, make it possible to strike Odesa in just a few seconds, which makes the situation critical for the southern region of Ukraine.
As for the Kherson region, the report about the number of Russian boats in the Dnipro delta raises serious concerns. However, according to Stupak, a large amphibious landing or offensive on the right bank of the Dnieper is unlikely due to the difficulty of moving heavy equipment and the constant threat of Ukrainian forces.
Another important component of Russian plans is the use of Transnistria as a springboard for an offensive on Odessa. However, according to Ivan Stupak, Russia has no real opportunities to carry out such an offensive. Transnistria, as the situation shows, is not a military power. Local residents, according to information from Moldova, are not ready for major military operations, and Russian troops are actually absent there. Attempts to use Transnistria to destabilize Ukraine are unlikely to succeed, especially given the problems that exist in Russia itself, both within its special services and in the army.
Another important aspect is the work of the Russian special services in the information space. Russia is actively trying to influence the situation in the southern regions of Ukraine, in particular through social networks and propaganda channels. However, as Stupak notes, due to the effective countermeasures of the Ukrainian special services, these attempts do not have a significant effect. They can influence individual moments, but are not able to seriously destabilize the situation in the region.
As of today, the situation remains tense, but, according to Stupak, a major military operation in southern Ukraine is not an imminent scenario. Russia may try to carry out small sabotage actions, to accumulate forces for further attempts, but the implementation of a plan for a large landing or a full-scale attack on Odesa seems unlikely. In addition, it is strategically important for Ukraine to protect its ports and access to the Black Sea, which is a priority for the Russians.
