Currently, the situation in southern Ukraine, in particular in Odessa and the Odessa region, looks critical due to the increased activity of Russian troops on the Kinburn Spit and in the Dnieper Delta. The Russian army is increasing its forces in the region, which creates new threats to strategic facilities and civilian infrastructure in southern Ukraine, in particular Odessa. How real is the threat of enemy forces landing in the Odessa region? Can Russia cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea with the help of Transnistria? Let's consider these questions through the prism of expert analysis.
One of the most dangerous aspects of the situation is the activation of Russian forces on the Kinburn Spit. This strategic facility, located just 60 km from Odessa, could become a base for missile strikes on the city and its port infrastructure. As Ivan Stupak, a former SBU officer, emphasizes, Russia aims to control the Kinburn Spit not only to protect Crimea, but also to implement plans to attack Odessa. Missiles, in particular the S-300, allow strikes on Odessa in just a few seconds, which makes the situation critical for the southern region of Ukraine.
As for the Kherson region, the report about the number of Russian boats in the Dnieper Delta raises serious concerns. However, according to Stupak, a large-scale landing or offensive on the right bank of the Dnieper is unlikely due to the difficulty of moving heavy equipment and the constant threat to Ukrainian forces.
Another important component of Russian plans is the use of Transnistria as a springboard for an offensive on Odessa. However, according to Ivan Stupak, Russia has no real capabilities to carry out such an offensive. Transnistria, as the situation shows, is not a military force. Local residents, according to information from Moldova, are not ready for major military operations, and Russian troops are virtually absent there. Attempts to use Transnistria to destabilize Ukraine are unlikely to succeed, especially given the problems that exist within Russia itself, both within its special services and in the army.
Another important aspect is the work of Russian special services in the information space. Russia is actively trying to influence the situation in the southern regions of Ukraine, in particular through social networks and propaganda channels. However, as Stupak notes, due to effective countermeasures by Ukrainian special services, these attempts do not have a significant effect. They may influence individual moments, but are not capable of seriously destabilizing the situation in the region.
As of today, the situation remains tense, but, according to Stupak, a major military operation in southern Ukraine is not the nearest scenario. Russia may try to carry out small sabotage actions, accumulate forces for further attempts, but the implementation of the plan for a large-scale landing or full-scale attack on Odessa looks unlikely. In addition, the protection of its ports and access to the Black Sea is of strategic importance for Ukraine, which is a priority for the Russians.
