This winter, Russian occupation forces intend to focus on capturing front-line Ukrainian cities through intense urban fighting. According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russians are trying to reduce the impact of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and limit the use of their armored vehicles. This indicates preparation for radical changes in the offensive tactics at the front.
Russian propagandist and Kremlin liaison Mykhailo Zvinchuk, founder of the Rybar Telegram channel, noted that the occupiers plan to abandon traditional battles in open fields in favor of more complex and risky urban battles. According to him, the priorities for the Russians will be Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, and the occupiers are already preparing to attack Pokrovsk from the southeast, after the recent capture of Selidovoy.
This shift in focus to urban battles is not accidental - in the conditions of intensive UAV attacks by the Armed Forces, the Russians are trying to find new methods of combat that will help them maintain a tactical advantage at the front.
There are several reasons why Russia chooses urban fighting. Instead of waging an offensive in open fields, where their armored vehicles and artillery could become targets for Ukrainian drones, the occupiers believe that urban conditions with high-rise buildings and limited spaces give them more cover from drone attacks. Zvinchuk emphasizes that this will allow the Russians to preserve heavy equipment and reduce the risks for the infantry.
ISW analysts also believe that the strategy of the Russian Federation regarding urban battles will help to reduce the costs of using armored vehicles and artillery. They estimate that in this way the occupiers will try to avoid large losses that inevitably accompany offensives through the countryside and front-line settlements.
One of the main problems for Russian troops is effective countermeasures against Ukrainian drones, which cause significant losses in their ranks. Zvinchuk noted that the occupiers have an advantage in artillery, but due to constant UAV attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they cannot advance significantly in some areas of the front.
To overcome these problems, the Russian command plans to increase the number of drones in its units, relying on intensive warfare with UAVs. The Russians aim for better-equipped troops to be able to effectively fight Ukrainian drone operators and break new ground.
The capture of such cities as Kupyansk and Chasovii Yar can have a significant operational impact on the geometry of the front. This, in turn, will endanger the main defensive positions of the Armed Forces in the respective directions.
Given these factors, ISW believes that these offensives can become the basis for new attacks by Russian forces in the winter of 2024-2025. However, as experts note, for Russia this plan is associated with great risks: significant losses among its troops are expected due to grueling operations in urban conditions.
