This winter, Russian occupation forces intend to focus on capturing Ukrainian frontline cities through intense urban combat. According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russians are trying to reduce the impact of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and limit the use of their armored vehicles. This indicates preparations for a radical change in offensive tactics on the front.
Russian propagandist and Kremlin liaison Mikhail Zvinchuk, founder of the Telegram channel “Rybar,” noted that the occupiers plan to abandon traditional battles in open fields in favor of more complex and risky urban battles. According to him, the Russians will prioritize Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, and the occupiers are already preparing to attack Pokrovsk from the southeast, following the recent capture of Selidove.
This shift in focus to urban combat is not accidental — in the face of intense UAV attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians are trying to find new methods of fighting that will help them maintain a tactical advantage at the front.
There are several reasons why Russia is choosing urban warfare. Rather than fighting in open fields where their armour and artillery could be targets for Ukrainian drones, the occupiers believe that urban conditions with their high-rise buildings and confined spaces give them more cover from drone attacks. Zvinchuk stresses that this will allow the Russians to keep their heavy equipment and reduce the risk to their infantry.
ISW analysts also believe that the Russian strategy for urban combat could help reduce the cost of using armored vehicles and artillery. They estimate that in this way the occupiers will try to avoid the heavy losses that inevitably accompany offensives through rural areas and frontline settlements.
One of the main problems for Russian troops is effective counteraction to Ukrainian drones, which cause significant losses in their ranks. Zvinchuk noted that the occupiers have an advantage in artillery, but due to constant attacks by UAVs, the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot advance significantly in some sections of the front.
To overcome these problems, the Russian command plans to increase the number of drones in its units, relying on intensive UAV warfare. The Russians aim to have better-equipped troops able to effectively combat Ukrainian drone operators and advance to new frontiers.
The capture of cities such as Kupyansk and Chasovy Yar could have a significant operational impact on the geometry of the front. This, in turn, would jeopardize the main defensive positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the relevant directions.
Given these factors, ISW believes that these offensives could become the basis for new attacks by Russian troops in the winter of 2024-2025. However, as experts note, this plan is associated with great risks for Russia: significant losses among its troops are expected due to exhausting operations in urban conditions.
