Russian forces have not yet created the conditions for launching a new large-scale offensive across the international border in northern Ukraine — in Sumy and Kharkiv regions. There is also no evidence that the Russian army is preparing or capable of conducting a significant offensive operation on this front in the near future, according to a new report by the Institute for the Study of War.
Analysts note that they have not recorded any signs of a large-scale redeployment of Russian forces into the area of responsibility of the Northern Group of Forces or directly to the northern border of Ukraine. In their assessment, such movements that could ensure a targeted offensive operation are not currently taking place.
At the same time, the Institute draws attention to the differences in Russian tactics in this direction. Unlike the situation near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipol, Russian troops did not conduct battlefield preparations for a large-scale ground offensive in Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
In particular, the Russian Federation has not carried out a sustained campaign of drone airstrikes. Analysts say such drone strikes have become part of a standard Russian operational pattern aimed at weakening Ukrainian logistics and defenses before intensifying ground operations. The lack of such training in northern Ukraine, according to ISW, is telling.
The report also notes that Russian forces may attempt to launch isolated cross-border attacks in the coming days or weeks, likely to create an information effect against the backdrop of peace talks, in particular, to create the impression of alleged instability on the northern front.
Analysts emphasize that at present such actions are rather demonstrative in nature and do not indicate an intention to seize territory as part of a broader offensive campaign.
At the same time, ISW warns: if the Russian army launches a coordinated campaign of air strikes on Ukraine's tactical and operational rear or carries out a large-scale redeployment of additional forces to the Northern Group of Forces, this may indicate the preparation of a new ground offensive in the north.
In this case, analysts note, the Russian command would have to lower the priority of the southern and eastern directions of the front.
