The Russian military command is moving elements of two airborne divisions (APD) from the Zaporizhzhia region to Donetsk region, with the aim of strengthening and intensifying the current offensive operations. This information was released by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts pointed to three possible directions of the front where Russia could send these units, but did not say that this would necessarily happen.
In particular, Russian and Ukrainian sources point to the movement of parts of the 76th and 7th divisions, which were operating in the Robotyny area in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region. The well-known Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that such a decision was made recently by the Russian military command. He indicated the possible transfer of at least one battalion of the 76th Division to the front in the Luhansk region or to the direction of Kramatorsk/Bakhmutivka.
Also, a Russian blogger, known for his biased attitude towards the VAT of the Russian Federation, claims that soon elements of the 76th and 7th divisions will operate in other directions, located on the left bank of the Kherson region and the western part of Zaporizhzhia. These actions may be related to the intention to change the units of the 104th Division of the VAT, operating near the Ukrainian tactical bridgehead in Krynk on the left bank of the Dnieper.
"We still do not have confirmation regarding the redeployment of elements of the 76th and 7th divisions to other directions. However, these reports from Russian and Ukrainian sources are important. The movement of Russian forces from the Zaporizhzhia region to the eastern part of Ukraine requires additional analysis in the coming days," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted.
The experts recalled that in the middle of the summer of 2023, elements of these two divisions of the Russian Armed Forces were moved from the Lymansky and Kherson directions to the Robotyny district. This strengthened the enemy's defenses in this direction at a critical moment, helping the occupiers to hold the line of defense in Zaporozhye. Redeployed enemy forces launched counterattacks that showed the 76th and 7th Divisions to be superior to other Russian forces, and these divisions recovered somewhat during the sluggish advance in the south.
"In recent weeks, Russian troops captured most of Robotino. Perhaps the command decided that combat-capable units of the 76th and 7th Airborne Divisions would be more useful in other directions," ISW suggested.
According to military experts, the occupiers may try to move parts of one or both of the mentioned divisions to the east in order to support offensive operations in the Donetsk region and take advantage of the current "vulnerable point" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"Now the Russian troops are trying to carry out an offensive to the northwest of Avdiyivka in order to achieve a wider breakthrough in this area, and are intensifying operations to capture the strategically important city of Chasiv Yar," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted. There, they suggest that the Russian military command intends to use elements of the 76th and 7th Divisions as a significant reinforcement to any of these efforts in order to achieve strategic gains before the arrival of American military assistance, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to slow the enemy advance and stabilize the front line.
In the Avdiiv direction, Russia has currently formed a relatively compact grouping of troops, mainly from elements of the Central Military District and the 1st Army Corps of the DPR, although they are likely tired from intensive offensive operations over the past few months. It should not be ruled out that reinforcements from parts of airborne divisions can become an additional operational force for them to continue attacks in this area.
In the Bakhmut direction, according to analysts, the Russian Federation created a less consolidated grouping of troops, which includes elements of several divisions and brigades of the VAT. Therefore, the transfer of parts of the 76th and 7th divisions to this area could strengthen the attacks of the occupiers on Chasiv Yar.
Another possible option is the transfer of these military formations of the Russian Federation to the line Kupyansk - Svatove - Kreminna, where the invaders resumed offensive actions.
"However, it appears that Russian forces are seeking to consolidate this entire area under the responsibility of the Moscow Military District, and the movement of the 76th and 7th PVD divisions may not be as effective in this effort compared to the more intensive operations currently taking place in the Donetsk region." , - explained in ISW. Despite this, they believe that any movement of the specified military formations will give Russian forces the opportunity to intensify offensive operations and "put the Armed Forces under pressure regardless of their location."
So far, military experts have not determined which of the mentioned areas of the front line is the most likely to be moved to, if at all such a move will take place. "We will continue to monitor reports of the possible movement of elements of the 76th and 7th Divisions, as this poses a significant risk to Ukraine's ability to slow down ongoing Russian offensive operations in the east in the coming weeks until US security assistance arrives," the ISW concluded. .
