Russia captured Avdiivka thanks to air superiority - Institute for the Study of War

The Russians, according to analysts, were able to provide their ground forces with air support in the final days of their offensive. This is probably the first such incident during a full-scale invasion.

Since the beginning of 2023, Russian troops have been increasing the use of guided aerial bombs.

In Avdiivka, the Russian military used such bombs on a large scale for the first time to support the infantry that was on the offensive from the air, experts note. This indicates that the Armed Forces were unable to sufficiently close the airspace over Avdiivka.

ISW draws attention to the data provided on February 17 by a representative of the Ukrainian brigade operating near Avdiyivka. He claimed that the Russian forces fired 60 guided aerial bombs at the Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka the other day.

According to other data, the Russians have used up to 500 such bombs in the area in recent days.

ISW experts state that delays in Western aid to Kyiv may further reduce Ukrainian air defense capabilities, and air superiority will allow Russian troops to advance more aggressively.

On Saturday, February 17, the Ukrainian command and President Volodymyr Zelenskyi announced the withdrawal from the destroyed city.

Ukrainian troops left Avdiyivka to avoid encirclement and retreated to new lines of defense, said Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine were forced to withdraw from Avdiyivka due to a lack of ammunition due to the inaction of Congress. This was stated by US President Joe Biden after a conversation with Zelenskyi. According to the US president, the consequence of Congress' inaction led to Russia's first notable successes.

Biden emphasized the need for Congress to urgently pass a bill on additional funding for national security to replenish the reserves of Ukrainian forces. The US Congress went on vacation. The decision on aid to Ukraine has not yet been made.

Avdiivka was stormed by Russian troops for four months. The losses of the parties in this battle are not reliably known.

Dmytro Lykhoviy, spokesman for the Tavria operational-strategic group of troops, said in a BBC commentary that since October 2023, Russia has suffered 47,000 casualties in the battle for Avdiivka, including 17,000 killed.

Four planes in two days

Meanwhile, the command of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that on Sunday morning, February 18, another Russian plane - a Su-34 bomber - was shot down in the eastern direction.

Three more aircraft were shot down on Saturday, February 17: two Su-34 fighter-bombers and one Su-35 fighter.

The Russian army confirmed the downing of only one plane. The Su-34 is a front-line supersonic fighter-bomber designed for missile-bomb strikes against ground targets.

On the night of February 18, 12 "Shaheed" and one Kh-59 guided air missile were shot down over Ukraine.

Schools, hospitals, houses

Russian troops continue to shell Ukrainian cities and villages. As a result of shelling in Kramatorsk, two people were killed and two more were injured. Dozens of houses were damaged. This was announced by the head of the regional military administration, Vadym Filashkin.

Damaged buildings in Vugledarska, Kurakhivska and Ocheretynska communities - a cultural center, two high-rise buildings, private houses.

Schools were destroyed in Selydovo, Malynivka, and Slovyansk.

On Saturday evening, the Russians launched a rocket attack on Sloviansk, as a result of which they destroyed the premises in which the point of invincibility was located. On Sunday, rescuers found the body of a watchman among the rubble.

In just one day, the Russians fired 14 times on populated areas of Donetsk region and struck more than 50 strikes on Kharkiv region, where civilians were killed and wounded, OVA reported.

On February 17, 21 shells arrived in Kherson. The area was shelled 39 times. The Russian military targeted residential quarters, an educational institution, a printing house, and a hospital.

One person died in the Kherson region, eight others were injured.