In the Donetsk region, Russian troops may launch an offensive from the north of Avdiivka in the direction of the city of Toretsk in order to support the following operations near the city of Chasiv Yar. However, such a maneuver requires a tactical pause.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cites analytical data from Ukrainian military expert Kostyantyn Mashovets, who believes that Russian forces may be concentrated on the line from Stara Mykolaivka to Sukhoi Balka, rather than northwest of the village of Ocheretyne. This is due to the fact that the Russian troops are already engaged in the protection of their flanks in the Ocheretiny area.
It is also possible that Russian troops may decide to continue their offensive north from their tactical penetration near the village of Ocheretine along the N-20 highway (Donetsk - Kostiantynivka), which will allow them to press the Armed Forces defending near Toretsk.
Mashovets also reported that the Russian Central Group of Forces operating in the Avdiyivka region formed a tactical reserve of three small infantry regiments.
According to ISW's preliminary assessment, Russian forces are creating reserves at the operational and strategic levels for the upcoming spring-summer offensive operation.
The evening summary of the General Staff of Ukraine for April 30 also reports on the activity of Russian occupation troops in the directions of Avdiyivka, Bakhmut and Lyman in the Donetsk region. At the same time, ISW points to the pressure of the Russians in the area of the city of Chasiv Yar.
According to the General Staff of Estonia, Russia will not be able to capture Chasiv Yar until May 9.
