Since the beginning of July, there has been a noticeable decrease in the number of missile strikes on Crimea by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This trend causes different interpretations and discussions in military and political circles.
The last major alarm on the peninsula was announced last Friday. None of the parties reported any losses. According to some reports, there was a threat from Storm Shadow air missiles.
At the same time, the intensity of strikes was higher in June. Only on the 20th of June there were at least three strikes. Two of them were hit on June 23 by ATACMS missiles - in Sevastopol (where the fragments of the missile fell on the beach, as a result of which five people died) and in the Yevpatoria area. Another attack was on June 29.
In July, as we can see, only one attack was reported.
At the same time, on Monday, July 8, the Russian military announced that they shot down three HIMARS launchers in the area of the village of Klapaya, Kherson region. A drone video of the damage was released.
Ukraine did not confirm its authenticity, as well as the loss of three HIMARS (from which, by the way, ATACMS is launched). But since then there have been no new shelling of Crimea.
Naturally, this does not mean that there will not be new shelling in the near future. Especially since there are still a lot of HIMARS in the Armed Forces.
However, there is one problem that poses a threat to HIMARS striking Crimea.
We are talking about the recent activation of Russian reconnaissance drones, which massively adjust strikes on the objects of the Armed Forces. In particular, on launchers.
To use ATACMS missiles in the same Sevastopol, it is necessary to bring HIMARS somewhere in the area of Mykolaiv, from where it will be about 270 kilometers to the target. At the same time, Russian reconnaissance drones also fly over Mykolaiv and even over Odessa.
If the Russians really hit the HIMARS near the village of Klapaya, northwest of Kherson, then it is already about 12 kilometers from the Russian positions - which is covered not only by Iskander, but also by conventional artillery or MLRS.
If we talk about the attack on the Crimean bridge, then in order to get it to the limit of 300 kilometers for ATACMS, the launcher must be adjusted to an 11-kilometer zone near the front line on the right bank of the Dnieper, but already somewhere in the area of Novaya Kakhovka.
This creates a high risk for HIMARS installations, since Russian reconnaissance drones are extremely active dozens of kilometers from the front line.
Flying in often and much further. And, naturally, installations for launching missiles, as well as air defense systems, are a priority goal for them.
Of course, this does not mean that the Armed Forces will abandon strikes on Crimea. They will probably be repeated.
But the drone problem forces Ukrainian forces to be more cautious about using HIMARS near the front line. And launch from a greater distance. Which will affect both the frequency of hits and their range. If on the western coast of Crimea (including Sevastopol) it is still possible, as written above, to strike from a relatively blue rear (although Russian reconnaissance drones fly there too), then strikes on the Crimean bridge, for which installations need to be adjusted close to the front line, become very a difficult task.
The same problem with the use of Patriot systems to attack Russian aircraft that drop anti-aircraft missiles. The closer the air defense systems are to the front line, the higher the threat of their damage. Especially since there have already been precedents for hitting the Patriots in the near rear.
