The claims that are widespread in the information space about Russia's ability to launch 500 or even 1,000 kamikaze drones every day are nothing more than hyperbole. The reality is much more down-to-earth. This was stated by Oleg Katkov, editor-in-chief of Defense Express, on the air of Radio NV.
According to him, at the end of spring and the beginning of summer, the GUR estimated the daily production capacity of “shaheeds” at 90 units. Today, this figure probably does not exceed 100.
“If you produce 100 “shaheeds” per day, how can you launch 500 every day? Someone who talks about thousands of drones tomorrow is either not a friend of mathematics or has in mind some very distant “tomorrow,” Katkov said.
Ukraine, according to the analyst, is actively working to neutralize Russia's UAV production potential. The latest example was the attack by Luti-type kamikaze drones on the Kupol plant in Izhevsk, where two production shops were hit, one of them with a direct hit to the shop window.
“With methodical strikes, Russian enterprises simply will not be able to maintain the current pace of production. And if we do not stop them completely, then we will definitely force them to slow down,” Katkov added.
Electronic warfare specialist Sergei “Flash” Beskrestnov reported that Russia is indeed building a new factory to produce “Shaheeds,” but even in the long term, it is only about 700–800 drones per year. That’s less than 70 units per month — not at all the scale of mass terror, as often claimed in propaganda narratives.
In addition, Ukraine is already actively working on interceptor drones capable of hitting “shaheeds” while still in the air. At the same time, as Beskrestnov notes, Russia is already looking for ways to counter this new Ukrainian technology — and therefore the technological confrontation is only escalating.
Massive drone attacks are not only a weapon, but also an element of psychological warfare. Hyperbolized figures, such as “a thousand drones tomorrow,” play on emotions and create panic. However, facts and analytics demonstrate: the Russian drone program has limits. And Ukraine is already hitting them — purposefully and with results.
