Russia is actively preparing for a new wave of massive strikes on Ukraine in the fall of 2025, increasing the production of missiles and drones. This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published the day before.
Analysts say that Russia’s growing defense production creates the potential for larger-scale strikes than those that Ukraine’s air defense system has previously withstood. ISW estimates that by November 2025, Russian forces could achieve the capability to launch up to 2,000 strike drones in a single night.
This could mean a completely new level of threat to Ukraine's critical infrastructure, energy system, military facilities, and civilian population.
The report emphasizes the critical importance of strengthening air defense systems, especially the American Patriot systems, which have already proven their effectiveness against Russian ballistic missiles, including in the defense of Kyiv and the Dnipro.
" Larger-scale attacks from Russia can be implemented precisely through the accumulation of drones and missiles. This requires a prompt response from the West - primarily in the form of additional supplies of modern air defense equipment ," the ISW report says.
This forecast also indicates that the Russian Federation plans to rely on the depletion of Ukrainian air defense systems before winter, which could repeat the energy terror scenario of 2022–2023.
