Russia captured Avdiivka through air dominance – Institute for the Study of War

The Russians, analysts say, were able to provide air support to their ground forces in the final days of their offensive, likely the first such incident during a full-scale invasion.

Since the beginning of 2023, Russian forces have been increasing the use of guided aerial bombs.

In Avdiivka, the Russian military used such bombs on a large scale for the first time to provide air support for infantry advancing, experts say. This indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to sufficiently close the airspace over Avdiivka.

ISW draws attention to data provided on February 17 by a representative of a Ukrainian brigade operating near Avdiivka. He claimed that over the past day, Russian forces have dropped 60 guided aerial bombs on Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka.

According to other reports, the Russians have used up to 500 such bombs in the area in recent days.

ISW experts state that delays in Western aid to Kyiv could further reduce the capabilities of Ukrainian air defense, and air superiority would allow Russian troops to advance more aggressively.

On Saturday, February 17, the Ukrainian command and President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the withdrawal from the destroyed city.

Ukrainian troops left Avdiivka to avoid encirclement and retreated to new defense lines, said Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces were forced to withdraw from Avdiivka due to a lack of ammunition due to Congressional inaction. This was stated by US President Joe Biden after a conversation with Zelensky. According to the US President, the result of Congressional inaction led to Russia's first noticeable successes.

Biden stressed the need for Congress to urgently pass a bill on additional national security funding to replenish Ukrainian forces. The US Congress has gone on vacation. A decision on aid to Ukraine has not yet been made.

Russian troops stormed Avdiivka for four months. The losses of both sides in this battle are not reliably known.

Dmitry Lykhovoi, spokesman for the Tavria operational-strategic group of troops, reported in a comment to the BBC that since October 2023, Russia has suffered 47,000 losses in the battle for Avdiivka, including 17,000 killed.

Four planes in two days

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Air Force Command reports that on Sunday morning, February 18, another Russian plane, a Su-34 bomber, was shot down in the eastern direction.

Three more aircraft were shot down on Saturday, February 17: two Su-34 fighter-bombers and one Su-35 fighter.

The Russian military confirmed the downing of only one aircraft. The Su-34 is a front-line supersonic fighter-bomber designed for missile and bomb strikes on ground targets.

On the night of February 18, 12 "Shaheeds" and one Kh-59 guided missile were shot down over Ukraine.

Schools, hospitals, homes

Russian troops continue to shell Ukrainian cities and villages. Two people were killed and two more were injured in the shelling in Kramatorsk. Dozens of houses were damaged. This was reported by the head of the regional military administration, Vadym Filashkin.

Damaged buildings in the Vuhledarska, Kurakhivska, and Ocheretinska communities include a cultural center, two high-rise buildings, and private homes.

Schools in Selydove, Malinovka, and Sloviansk were destroyed.

On Saturday night, the Russians launched a missile strike on Sloviansk, destroying a building that housed a checkpoint. On Sunday, rescuers found the body of a guard among the rubble.

In just 24 hours, the Russians shelled settlements in the Donetsk region 14 times and launched more than 50 strikes on the Kharkiv region, where there were deaths and injuries among the civilian population, the OVA said.

21 shells landed in Kherson on February 17. The region was shelled 39 times. Russian military targets included residential areas, an educational institution, a printing house, and a hospital.

One person died in the Kherson region, eight more were injured.