Russia plans to continue the war against Ukraine at least until the State Duma elections, which are scheduled to take place in September 2026. At the same time, the Kremlin can expect an even longer period of hostilities.
This is reported in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose analysts cite insider information from Russian sources.
According to the source, the Russian presidential administration held a special seminar for vice-governors on domestic politics and preparations for the upcoming State Duma elections. Participants were to work out key scenarios for the development of the situation in the country, taking into account a full-scale war against Ukraine.
As analysts note, the planning of the election campaign in Russia is directly linked to the course of hostilities.
“ An insider source claimed that election planning would focus on Russia’s progress toward a full-scale invasion ,” the report said.
According to ISW, the Kremlin is considering three main scenarios for the development of events. All of them envisage the continuation of the war at least until the elections in September 2026. The difference between them lies only in the degree of Russian military success or the need to mobilize public support.
Analysts call the most likely scenario a scenario in which the situation at the front remains relatively stable without any radical changes in the military or economic spheres.
“ These insider statements indicate that the Kremlin plans to continue the war at least until September, but probably much longer ,” analysts emphasize.
At the same time, the report notes, the Russian authorities could use any potential peaceful settlement before the elections as a political victory. However, there are currently no signs of preparations for such a scenario.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously spoken about Russia's long-term plans. According to him, Moscow is considering the possibility of continuing the war for another two years.
The President reported that the Ukrainian side has received documents with Russia's plans for 2025–2027. They show that the Kremlin is not abandoning attempts to occupy the eastern regions of Ukraine, and is also considering further pressure in the southern direction.
According to Zelensky, Russia's key goals remain the complete occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, advancement in the Zaporizhia region, and attempts to put pressure on the Dnipropetrovsk region. The occupiers also continue to consider the Odessa direction.
At the same time, the Ukrainian president emphasized that these plans do not correspond to the real situation on the front, since Russian troops were unable to fulfill the previously set tasks.
In addition, the head of state warned of possible new pressure tactics from Russia. According to him, after a severe winter, the enemy may intensify massive attacks on infrastructure, in particular on water supply systems, in an attempt to create a humanitarian crisis.
Zelenskyy called on local communities to pay special attention to protecting water bodies and backup systems, and the Defense Forces to be ready to repel new attacks.
