The talks in Riyadh, which have been ongoing since March 23, have attracted the attention of the international community not only due to the meetings between the Ukrainian and American delegations, but also due to the dialogue between representatives of the United States and Russia.
Political scientist Vadym Denysenko assessed the possible results of the negotiations.
Negotiations between the Ukrainian and American, as well as the American and Russian delegations, have been taking place in Riyadh since March 23. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, in particular, reported that the dialogue with the United States was effective. After negotiations between representatives of the United States and the Russian Federation, which lasted all day on March 24, it became known that the Ukrainian delegation would remain in Saudi Arabia for another day to meet with their American colleagues again.
At the same time, American media reports that the reports provided to the administration of US President Donald Trump by the US technical group in Riyadh seem optimistic. An official statement may appear in a few hours. But already now we can talk about the logic of the Russians' actions, which boils down to the formula: offer a lot, ask for the impossible, and stall for time.
So, how does it work?
Putin is offering the Americans a number of high-margin deals.
I have repeatedly written and said: the Russian proposal boils down to the fact that the Americans are offered not only to enter the mining and development of the Arctic, but also to be given mediation in the trade of sanctioned goods in unfriendly countries (primarily the European Union). At the same time, Putin has decided to play along with Trump's logic. And therefore he is ready to talk, as they say, even about shares in Rosatom and Roscosmos. And this is the main factor in putting pressure on Trump. At stake, I repeat, are tens of billions of dollars a year.
In exchange, the Russian dictator asks for two things: the lifting of sanctions and the recognition of Ukrainian territories by Russia. And at the same time, he is dragging on. Why?
First, Putin wants to conduct a summer military campaign because he believes we will fall asleep (and this is the last campaign possible without mobilization).
Secondly, he needs to prepare Russia for peaceful life and especially needs to close the issue of possible silent resistance of 30-35% of ura-patriots, who are already the backbone of the anti-Putin ura-patriotic minority. But a minority, theoretically, ready for aggression.
Third, he is preparing for Trump to stumble.
And his main foreign game is to become needed by both the US and China ahead of their upcoming negotiations.
This is the foreign policy factor that we should pay special attention to. And here the playing field is the world.
And I already wrote about the game on the Black Sea, Putin will try to do the same in Iran, in Africa (primarily the Sahel region), he will try to play something in Latin America, although there are few chances here..
There will be no quick peace (its probability is low). But, in addition to the military and diplomatic campaign, we clearly lack an information campaign in the US “Putin is manipulating Trump.”.
The thing is that Putin has up to two months when he can stall for time and find such points of influence on Trump that will allow the latter to turn a blind eye to the manipulations. It will be unrealistic to stall for time longer - it will become too noticeable. And Trump will have two options: either impose sanctions against Russia, or switch to something else. Ukraine cannot be allowed to switch to something else.
