Political analyst Gennady Druzenko examines the climax stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war, when both sides are on the brink and facing systemic failures. Druzenko analyzes why these failures are due to both external pressure and internal inefficiency, and how this will affect the outcome of further negotiations.
RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR: CLIMINUM
It seems that the Russian-Ukrainian war has entered the climax stage. A climax when both sides are unwilling or unable to move to an all-out war, which requires maximum mobilization and strain of all forces and resources.
In the current (non-total) war, it seems that both systems (both Ukrainian and Russian) are working at the limit. It seems that both are starting to experience systemic failures. Moreover, these failures are caused by both external pressure and the inefficiency of the systems themselves.
Both sides lack, first of all, people at the front. Both lack a real mobilization of society for victory. Both are dominated by those who prefer to win by someone else's hands. Half a million are fighting, dozens are cheering or watching. Both sides are being persistently pushed by allies and partners to end the war. Both have systemic problems with energy. In both, military service still remains a tax on poverty and decency. In both, corruption is flourishing. In both countries, war catastrophically reduces the chance of a decent future.
We win thanks to motivation, social consolidation, national support for the Defense Forces, support from the West, innovative approaches. Russia takes on scale, Soviet weapons stocks, greater systematicity and brutality.
Surely both Zelensky and Putin would prefer to fight to the victorious end. But both know that without the total mobilization of their societies and the transfer of the entire system to military rails, it (the system) can collapse. Therefore, within the current paradigm, the war has reached its apogee.
And now the key question: under what conditions will the parties be ready to cease fire? It is clear that both the 1991 borders and the four regions of Ukraine + Crimea are unattainable “wishes” that the parties do not have the resources to achieve. And they realize this.
Therefore, the time has come for bluffing, maximum willpower, and cold-blooded calculation of the most advantageous negotiating position. As well as reserves that can be thrown into battle as the last argument. And it is on the cold-bloodedness and skill of negotiators that it depends whether we will receive worthy conditions for ending the current stage of the war, or whether we will lose much more than we could.
The armies only create a negotiating framework for the political process. The terms of the end of the war and the post-war order are determined by politicians. And here I am very worried for some reason. Guess why?
