The Russian army is trying to seize the initiative on the front, using fog and rain against Ukraine. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) state that the occupiers are deliberately targeting the weak point of Ukrainian defense - its dependence on drones, which work worse in poor visibility.
ISW draws attention to the area near Novopavlivka, where the Russians launched an attack on November 14 after a relative lull in the area. Geolocation footage shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian armored vehicles northeast of the village, but at the same time Russian military officials boast that the assault units were able to cross a pontoon bridge twice, under the cover of thick fog.
According to ISW, the occupiers have recently been systematically using foggy weather to launch attacks along the entire front, especially in the Pokrovsk, Velykymykhailivka, and Hulyaipol directions. When Ukrainian eyes in the sky – reconnaissance and strike drones – cannot see targets, the Russians try to advance with assault groups, armored vehicles, and motorized infantry over short distances.
Separate analytical reviews also record: for several days now, thick fog near Pokrovsk has been making it easier for Russian units to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses, as drones are becoming less effective and aerial surveillance is becoming more difficult.
The "Drone Wall" and its weaknesses
ISW recalls that Ukraine has been forced to build a defense around drones largely out of necessity. The “drone wall” is a massive deployment of tactical strike UAVs and loitering munitions that are draining Russian manpower and equipment along a more than 1,200-kilometer front line, compensating for a shortage of infantry and heavy weapons.
This approach has indeed allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to deter larger and better-equipped Russian groups. But it has proven vulnerable precisely in conditions where drones cannot operate properly – due to fog, rain, low cloud cover, icing, or strong winds. According to analysts, the sparse and not everywhere properly fortified Ukrainian defensive positions, as well as the lack of artillery and other “classic” systems, complicate the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces when drones temporarily “go blind.”
What ISW offers: a return to the "classics" of war
The report emphasizes that the solution is not to abandon drones, but to build a multi-layered defense, where drones are just one element, not the only key tool.
Analysts emphasize:
– Ukraine needs a much larger supply of traditional weapons systems – primarily artillery, ammunition for it, as well as tanks, armored vehicles and air defense systems;
– only with a sufficient amount of “classical” fire damage will the Ukrainian army be able to close the gaps that arise when the weather nullifies the advantage of drones;
– the war shows that no single type of weapons can be a “magic wand” – relying only on UAVs makes defense vulnerable, and traditional weapons systems “have definitely not become an anachronism.”
In fact, ISW is warning the West: if Ukraine does not receive enough artillery and ammunition, the Russians will continue to look for “weather windows” – days when drones are less effective – and try to break through defenses with local mechanized assaults, as happened near Novopavlivka.
