Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, critical infrastructure facilities have become one of the main targets of the aggressor. However, the situation surrounding the Dnipro HPP, one of the largest hydroelectric power stations in Ukraine, is particularly worrying. Despite the fact that the dam has great strength and has withstood two previous massive shellings, the possibility of its complete destruction raises serious concerns. People's deputy Serhii Shtepa warns of catastrophic consequences that can be felt not only in Ukraine, but also far beyond its borders.
The Dnipro HPP dam is very strong, it is very difficult to destroy it, but if the Russian Federation does manage to do it, the consequences will be catastrophic, warns People's Deputy Serhiy Shtepa. The whole world will feel them - and the aggressor must be held accountable according to international laws, and Ukraine can create a historical precedent.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russian Federation has already carried out two massive attacks on the Dnipro hydroelectric plant. She survived, but was seriously injured. In the case of the complete destruction of the Dnipro HPP, the consequences will be even more significant than after the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP, and we are talking, in particular, about the consequences for the environment for many decades to come.
It is worth noting right away: it is quite difficult to destroy the Dnipro HPP to such an extent that the dam stops holding back thousands of tons of water, and it is unlikely to be possible as a result of a single missile attack. Constructions in Soviet times were designed specifically with regard to possible combat operations and bombings, they are sufficiently stable, so there is no need to panic. But if the attacks are repeated regularly, the threat will become more and more realistic.
It is quite difficult to predict the consequences for the city of Zaporizhzhia, within the boundaries of which DniproHPS is located. There are only approximate (I emphasize this) estimates. According to various calculations, in case of complete destruction of the dam, the water can reach a level of 8-12 meters (~4-5 floors) and stay there for 4 to 7 hours, and the complete decline of the water level will last 2-4 days. Almost the entire left bank of Zaporozhye will be in the zone of catastrophic flooding. By February 24, approximately 450,000–500,000 people lived there. Today it is less, but due to the large number of internally displaced persons, the figure does not differ significantly. It is difficult to even imagine the potential number of victims and victims in such a catastrophic scenario. I emphasize: these estimates are very rough, but even if they are largely inaccurate, it is still clear that the consequences will be dire.
In addition to the threat to people's lives and health, it is important to mention the possible potential consequences of the destruction of DniproHES for the environment. It's just that they are absolutely predictable and understandable! If the dam breaks, thousands of tons of water will flood not only Zaporozhye, but also the settlements downstream of the Dnieper. Water, together with toxins, waste and oil products, will enter the wide bed of the Kakhov reservoir.
And these are only the primary consequences. After the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP, a "carpet" of dead fish, garbage, algae, and animal bodies was soon formed. The same is highly likely to happen in the event of the destruction of DniproHES. Large areas will be littered, in particular the fertile soils of the south of the Zaporizhzhia region. This will make them unsuitable for agricultural activities for many years. The consequences will be felt all over the world, because the south of Ukraine has always produced large harvests. And even now, when part of these territories is temporarily occupied, thousands of tons of grain are exported from here, which are then sent for export to the countries of the Middle East and Africa. If these areas become unsuitable for growing wheat, the food crisis will be felt to one degree or another throughout the world.
We should not forget about other long-term consequences, such as the threat of death of a significant number of species of plants and animals living in the territories downstream of the Dnieper. Almost one and a half thousand hectares of the protected fund of local importance, botanical reserves, on the territory of which there are trees several centuries old and plants from the "Red Book", may disappear forever.
As of this second, the damage to the environment as a result of the Russian attacks on the Dnipro hydroelectric station already amounts to more than 140 million hryvnias. After the first shelling on March 22, oil products from the Dnipro HPP entered the water, and their two-fold concentration was recorded 30 kilometers downstream. It is obvious that the complete destruction of the dam will cause losses of tens or even hundreds of billions.
How realistic is it to bring the aggressor to justice for crimes and damage already caused to the environment? The additional protocol to the Geneva Conventions, dated June 8, 1977, contains Article 55 with the following content: "When conducting military operations, care must be taken to protect the natural environment from extensive, long-term and serious damage. Such protection shall include the prohibition of the use of methods or means of warfare which are intended to cause, or may be expected to cause, such damage to the natural environment and thereby to damage the health or survival of the population." Has it ever been used in practice? As far as I know, no. It's time to do it for the first time.
