Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, critical infrastructure facilities have become one of the main targets of the aggressor. However, the situation around the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, one of the largest hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine, is particularly worrying. Despite the fact that the dam is very strong and has withstood two previous massive attacks, the possibility of its complete destruction raises serious concerns. MP Serhiy Shtepa warns of catastrophic consequences that could be felt not only in Ukraine, but also far beyond its borders.
The Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant dam is very strong, it is very difficult to destroy it, but if the Russian Federation does manage to do it, the consequences will be catastrophic, warns People's Deputy Serhiy Shtepa. The whole world will feel them - and the aggressor must be held accountable under international law, and Ukraine can create a historical precedent.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russian Federation has already carried out two massive attacks on the Dnieper Hydroelectric Power Plant. It survived, but suffered serious damage. In the event of the complete destruction of the Dnieper Hydroelectric Power Plant, the consequences will be even more significant than after the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, and we are talking, in particular, about the consequences for the environment for many decades to come.
It is worth noting right away: destroying the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant to such an extent that the dam stops holding back thousands of tons of water is quite difficult, and it is unlikely that this will be possible as a result of a single missile attack. The structures in Soviet times were designed specifically with possible hostilities and bombings in mind, they are quite resistant, so there is no need to panic. But if the attacks are repeated regularly, the threat will become increasingly realistic.
The consequences for the city of Zaporizhzhia, within which the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant is located, are quite difficult to predict. There are only approximate (I emphasize this) estimates. According to various estimates, in the event of a complete destruction of the dam, the water could reach a level of 8–12 meters (~4–5 floors) and remain there for 4 to 7 hours, and a complete decline in the water level would last 2–4 days. Almost the entire left bank of Zaporizhzhia will be in the zone of catastrophic flooding. Until February 24, approximately 450–500 thousand people lived there. Today, there are fewer, but due to the large number of internally displaced persons, the figure does not differ very significantly. It is difficult to even imagine the potential number of victims and victims in such a catastrophic scenario. I emphasize: these estimates are very approximate, but even if they are largely inaccurate, it is still clear that the consequences will be terrible.
In addition to the threat to human life and health, it is important to mention the possible potential consequences of the destruction of the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant for the environment. They are absolutely predictable and understandable! In the event of a dam breach, thousands of tons of water will flood not only Zaporizhia, but also settlements downstream on the Dnieper. The water, along with toxins, waste and oil products, will enter the wide bed of the Kakhovka reservoir.
And these are only the initial consequences. After the Kakhovka HPP was blown up, a “carpet” of dead fish, garbage, algae, and animal bodies soon formed. The same thing will most likely happen if the Dnipro HPP is destroyed. Large areas will be littered, including the fertile soils of the south of the Zaporizhia region. This will make them unsuitable for agricultural activities for many years. The consequences will be felt all over the world, because the south of Ukraine has always yielded large harvests. And even now, when part of these territories is temporarily occupied, thousands of tons of grain are being exported from here, which are then sent for export to the countries of the Middle East and Africa. If these areas become unsuitable for growing wheat, the food crisis will be felt to one degree or another all over the world.
We should not forget about other long-term consequences, such as the threat of extinction of a significant number of plant and animal species living in the territories downstream of the Dnieper. Almost one and a half thousand hectares of protected areas of local importance, botanical reserves, on the territory of which there are trees several centuries old and plants from the "Red Book", may disappear forever.
As of this moment, the environmental damage from the Russian attacks on the Dnipro hydroelectric power station already amounts to over 140 million hryvnias. Oil products from the Dnipro hydroelectric power station after the first shelling, which occurred on March 22, fell into the water, and their concentration was twice as high as recorded 30 kilometers downstream. It is obvious that the complete destruction of the dam will cause damage in the tens or even hundreds of billions.
How realistic is it to hold an aggressor accountable for crimes and damage already caused to the environment? The Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions, dated June 8, 1977, contains Article 55, which states: “In the conduct of hostilities, care must be taken to protect the natural environment from widespread, long-term and serious damage. Such protection includes the prohibition of the use of methods or means of warfare which are intended to cause or may be expected to cause such damage to the natural environment and thereby harm the health or survival of the population.” Has it ever been used in practice? As far as I know, no. It is high time to do it for the first time.
