The situation in the bank deposits segment in February will be a logical consequence of the December trends, noted the director of the retail business department of Globus Bank, Dmytro Zamotaev. The regulator continues the implementation of stabilization measures, and therefore the impact of these measures on bank deposits is expected in the coming month.
In particular, it was noted that the situation in hryvnia deposits will depend on several key factors. First of all, from the regulator's strategy regarding the size of the discount rate and the rate for 3-month deposit certificates.
Zamotaev emphasized that now the rate on deposit certificates is 19%. Therefore, it is expected that the process of gradual reduction of deposit rates will begin in February. Depending on the term of the deposits, the yield can average 13-13.5% (deposits for 3-6 months) and 12.5-13% per annum (deposits from 9 to 12 months).
Economic forecasts indicate that a further decrease in rates on deposit certificates will lead to the need for banks to adjust the profitability of hryvnia deposits. According to the expert, if the interest rate is reduced by 1-2 percentage points to 18-17%, the profitability of hryvnia deposits, depending on the term of placement, may decrease by 1-1.5%. The projected profitability of deposits will be as follows:
- Deposits for a period of 3-6 months - profitability of 12.5%;
- Deposits for 9-12 months - 12% return.
According to the results of 2023, inflation amounted to 5.1% (16% was predicted). Inflation is expected to reach 9.8% in 2024. Note that lower inflation makes hryvnia deposits more attractive to depositors.
As for the foreign exchange market, at the end of January it turned out to be quite stable thanks to regulatory measures of the regulator. This is marked by stable exchange rates. Given the sufficient predictability of the exchange rate situation, it is expected that the popularity of hryvnia deposits will remain high.
According to Dmytro Zamotayev, the average interest rates on currency deposits will further decrease in February, reaching 2-1.9% per annum for dollars and 1.6-1.7% per annum for euros.
At the moment, the net profit on hryvnia deposits is from 5% to 6%, which is almost three times higher than the average rates on dollar deposits. For example, the yield in euros is almost three times lower.
The impact of the military conflict on the level of interest rates on deposits is discussed by Dmytro Zamotayev, director of the retail business department of Globus Bank. It is noted that in the situation at the front and due to the uncertainty of the further development of the war, it is not always possible to determine the foreseeable consequences. Nevertheless, he emphasizes that despite this, citizens are gradually adapting to the "here and now" living conditions, but this does not prevent them from considering the possibilities of passive income, such as placing funds on deposits.
It is noted that the profitability of hryvnia deposits will gradually decrease in accordance with the situation at the front and further developments. Although citizens are becoming more accustomed to volatility, they will continue to look for passive income opportunities through deposits. A similar trend will be observed in the currency deposits segment, but here the decrease in yield may have more pronounced signs of inertia. In general, it is expected that in February the number of new hryvnia deposits will continue to grow by an average of 5-10% compared to January.
