The situation in the bank deposits segment in February will be a logical consequence of December trends, said Dmytro Zamotayev, Director of the Retail Business Department of Globus Bank. The regulator continues to implement stabilization measures, and therefore, the impact of these measures on bank deposits is expected next month.
In particular, it was noted that the situation in hryvnia deposits will depend on several key factors. First of all, on the regulator's strategy regarding the size of the discount rate and the rate on 3-month deposit certificates.
Zamotayev emphasized that the current rate on certificates of deposit is 19%. Therefore, it is expected that the process of gradual reduction of deposit rates will begin in February. Depending on the term of the deposits, the yield can average 13-13.5% (deposits for 3-6 months) and 12.5-13% per annum (deposits from 9 to 12 months).
Economic forecasts indicate that a further decrease in rates on certificates of deposit will lead to the need for banks to adjust the profitability of hryvnia deposits. According to the expert, if the rate is reduced by 1-2 percentage points to 18-17%, the profitability of hryvnia deposits, depending on the term of placement, may decrease by 1-1.5%. The projected profitability of deposits will be as follows:
- Deposits for a period of 3-6 months – yield 12.5%;
- Deposits for a period of 9-12 months - yield of 12%.
In 2023, inflation was 5.1% (16% was forecast). Inflation is expected to be 9.8% in 2024. It should be noted that lower inflation makes hryvnia deposits more attractive to depositors.
As for the foreign exchange market, at the end of January it turned out to be quite stable due to the regulatory measures of the regulator. This is marked by stable exchange rate indicators. Given the sufficient predictability of the exchange rate situation, it is expected that the popularity of hryvnia deposits will remain high.
According to Dmitry Zamotaev, average rates on foreign currency deposits in February will continue to decrease, reaching 2-1.9% per annum for dollars and 1.6-1.7% per annum for euros.
Currently, the net profit on hryvnia deposits is from 5% to 6%, which is almost three times higher than the average rates on dollar deposits. For example, the yield on euros is almost three times lower.
The impact of the military conflict on the level of interest rates on deposits is discussed by Dmitry Zamotaev, director of the retail business department of Globus Bank. It is noted that in the situation on the front and due to the uncertainty of the further development of the war, it is not always possible to determine the foreseeable consequences. However, he emphasizes that despite this, citizens are gradually adapting to the “here and now” living conditions, but this does not prevent them from considering the possibilities of passive income, such as placing funds on deposits.
It is noted that the profitability of hryvnia deposits will gradually decrease in accordance with the situation on the front and further developments. Although citizens are becoming more accustomed to instability, they will continue to look for opportunities for passive income through deposits. A similar trend will be observed in the segment of foreign currency deposits, but here the decline in profitability may have more pronounced signs of inertia. In general, it is expected that in February the number of new hryvnia deposits will continue to grow by an average of 5-10% compared to January.
