How many Ukrainians will remain abroad after the war: a forecast from migration analysts

After the end of the war in Ukraine, an important question will arise: how many Ukrainians will remain abroad on a permanent or partial basis? Migration analysts indicate that this process will depend on a number of factors, including the speed of economic recovery of Ukraine and the possibility of integration of Ukrainians into the countries of the European Union.

As of 2024, about 6.5 million Ukrainians are abroad as refugees or temporary migrants. Studies show that 64% of Ukrainians currently living in Europe plan to return home after the war. However, only 56% of those who have already returned to Ukraine intend to stay, while the rest are exploring the possibility of moving abroad again, especially if the economic situation remains unstable.

Analysts of the migration company International Expert say that many people can "live in two countries" after the war. We are talking about Ukrainians who have now received a residence permit or even a second citizenship abroad. After the war, these people will actively return to their families in Ukraine.

But at the same time, the standard of living in the countries of the European Union, for example, will remain much higher than at home. Therefore, these new bipatris (persons with two citizenships) will most likely live in Ukraine and from time to time go to Europe to earn money.

The opposite situation is also possible, when current refugees will remain in the EU for permanent residence (if their status allows it), and will come to Ukraine only to visit relatives or to solve important matters, such as selling real estate. Such a phenomenon is already observed in Poland.

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