In the conditions of the ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine, the situation at the front is changing dynamically, in particular, due to Russia's serious problems with equipment.
Military and political commentator Oleksandr Kovalenko notes that the Russian invaders are facing a critical moment in their campaign due to a significant lack of Soviet-era military equipment.
According to Kovalenko's analysis, almost all stocks of enemy equipment left over from the time of the Soviet Union have been exhausted. This creates serious difficulties for the Russian Federation, since the country is entering a critical period when it will no longer be able to support its offensive ambitions with technical resources. The military expert notes that this can significantly affect the nature of the Russian offensive in the next six months.
"The character of the Russian offensive will change quite significantly. Since their mechanized potential is limited, their ability to effectively use the mechanized component decreases every day," Kovalenko noted. He also added that due to the lack of mechanized equipment, the Russian invaders could significantly reduce the intensity of hostilities.
The expert warns that at a certain moment, Russia may not be able to conduct full-fledged joint military offensive operations. This, in turn, can lead to the fact that the enemy will be forced to switch to less effective forms of warfare or even reduce its defensive actions. "The next stage is the impossibility of conducting defensive actions," Kovalenko added.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers have eliminated a significant amount of enemy equipment. According to data published by the Ukrainian command, 8,257 tanks and 15,917 armored fighting vehicles were destroyed. These figures indicate a large-scale loss of equipment and its exhaustion, which reinforces the conclusions about Russia's problems with technical resources.
In mid-July, The Economist reported that the Russian occupiers were running out of supplies of Soviet equipment. This may prompt Putin to consider the possibility of a truce with Ukraine.
This situation demonstrates that the war is entering a new phase where technical capabilities are becoming critical for both sides.
