In the context of the ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine, the situation on the front is changing dynamically, in particular due to Russia's serious problems with equipment.
Military and political commentator Alexander Kovalenko notes that the Russian invaders are facing a critical moment in their campaign due to a significant shortage of Soviet-era military equipment.
According to Kovalenko's analysis, almost all of the enemy's equipment left over from the Soviet Union has been depleted. This creates serious difficulties for the Russian Federation, as the country enters a critical period when it will no longer be able to provide its offensive ambitions with technical resources. The military expert notes that this could significantly affect the nature of the Russian offensive in the next six months.
“The nature of the Russian offensive will change quite significantly. Since their mechanized potential is limited, their ability to effectively use the mechanized component is decreasing every day,” Kovalenko noted. He also added that due to the lack of mechanized equipment, the Russian invaders may significantly reduce the intensity of hostilities.
The expert warns that at some point Russia may be unable to conduct full-fledged combined-arms offensive operations. This, in turn, may lead to the enemy being forced to switch to less effective forms of warfare or even reduce its defensive actions. “The next stage is the impossibility of conducting defensive actions,” Kovalenko added.
Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers have destroyed a significant amount of enemy equipment. According to data released by the Ukrainian command, 8,257 tanks and 15,917 armored combat vehicles have been destroyed. These figures indicate a large-scale loss of equipment and its depletion, which reinforces the conclusions about Russia's problems with technical resources.
In mid-July, The Economist reported that the Russian occupiers were running out of Soviet-made equipment, which could prompt Putin to consider a truce with Ukraine.
This situation demonstrates that the war is entering a new phase, where technical capabilities are becoming critically important for both sides.
