A well-known reserve major of the National Guard of Ukraine and a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Oleksiy Getman, expressed his opinion on the likely directions of Russia's offensive within the framework of the spring-summer campaign of 2025. On the air of the Espresso TV channel, he noted that usually any offensive operation should take place in several directions so as not to disperse forces.
"Most likely, the Russians will focus their efforts on 3-4 directions," Hetman said, adding that two directions are the minimum for successful offensive actions. In particular, according to him, the offensive could take place in both the north and south of Ukraine.
Hetman noted that the Russian Federation may likely intensify hostilities in the Sumy and Kharkiv directions, as well as continue the offensive in the Zaporizhia direction, where the situation will remain tense. At the same time, he emphasized that the fighting in the Pokrovsky direction is also ongoing, which is also important for the enemy.
Alexey Getman also expressed doubts about Russia's mobilization potential, in particular regarding the large reserves on the territory of the Russian Federation. According to him, Putin will not want to use conscripts for an offensive, as this could lead to protests within the country. However, he clarified that even conscripts, if desired, can be mobilized after signing a contract and sent to the front.
It is also known from social networks and analytical sources that Russia retains the tactics of "human waves", trying to push Ukrainian forces from the left banks of the Zherebets River, where the ratio of forces can reach 10 to 1 in favor of the Russian Federation. However, as Hetman noted, the Russian army did not achieve significant territorial successes throughout 2024, which indicates the limitations of its offensive capabilities.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia has concentrated significant forces near the Lyman in the Donetsk region and is preparing for an offensive, indicating an intensification of its military actions in eastern Ukraine.
Experts' forecasts indicate that offensive actions in several directions will be important for both sides in the coming months, and the results of these operations will be decisive for the further situation on the front.
