A "peace plan" for Ukraine that involves no de-occupation and the de facto consolidation of Russian-occupied territories could cost the European Union dearly and create a prolonged period of uncertainty, writes Reuters columnist Pierre Brianson, assessing the possible consequences of such a scenario for the region.
The main challenge, Brianson said, is whether the Kremlin will ever agree to give Ukraine frozen Russian reserves — some $300 billion in assets held in the United States, Britain, Japan and Europe — which many EU governments believe should be a key source of financing for the recovery.
However, if Moscow does not do this, the main burden will fall on Europe. “Instead of Russia shouldering half of the costs by giving up its frozen reserves, Ukraine’s allies may have to shoulder most of the burden,” the columnist notes.
The World Bank reminds us that Ukraine’s reconstruction requires the participation of foreign governments, international institutions, and private investors. But the private sector will not participate in investments while the status of the territories remains uncertain and the risk of renewed war is too high. This means that the financial burden will remain on the shoulders of partners for a long time to come.
Before the war, the Donetsk and Luhansk regions accounted for about 15% of Ukraine’s GDP. The loss of these regions and the uncertainty over their status make economic recovery a long and difficult process.
In addition, the EU will have to finance the return and adaptation of Ukrainian refugees, provide their training and social support, and assist thousands of military personnel who will return to civilian life.
The violation of territorial integrity also complicates Ukraine's possible accession to the EU. As long as the international status of the occupied regions is "suspended", the path to membership will face significant political and legal obstacles.
Brianson warns that even a conditional “peace” will not mean a reduction in risks for the West. On the contrary, European countries may be forced to increase defense spending faster than planned.
“ Investors, whose European defense stocks fell 5% after the announcement of Trump’s first “peace” plan, don’t seem to understand that Ukraine is not the only destination for European weapons. The region’s growing defense budgets should be spent on preparing for a potential conflict with Russia ,” he writes.
A separate concern is the possible lifting of some of the US sanctions against Russia in the event of a ceasefire. This would allow the Russian economy to recover and direct resources towards further rearmament.
The Atlantic suggests that Washington's "peace plan" may be a tactical move to soften Moscow's demands. However, Europe is skeptical of the idea, fearing long-term instability.
At the same time, Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak emphasized: Ukraine will not give up its territories in exchange for peace.
