The recent unblocking of American aid to Ukraine was perceived by many as a signal that the war will continue for a long time and that the chances of its quick end have sharply decreased.
For the most part, this idea is promoted in the Russian Federation, where they declare that US aid "only prolongs the war." But in Ukraine, you can also find the opinion that American aid destroyed the Kremlin's plan to force Kyiv to accept peace on Russian terms (that is, on the terms of renouncing the demands to withdraw Russian troops to the borders of 1991).
At the same time, there is an exactly opposite opinion - that the unblocking of American aid gives Ukraine a chance to negotiate with the Russian Federation and reach agreements on terms acceptable to Kyiv.
Also, the allocation of American aid can be an incentive for the Russian Federation to agree to negotiations, since now the chances of its unconditional and quick military victory have decreased. However, if Russia agrees to any agreements, then only on the condition of ending the war on the front line with the fixation of its territorial gains in Ukraine.
But neither Ukraine nor the West of Russia offer such conditions, continuing to insist on the return of the 1991 borders.
Now Kyiv is counting on the fact that Western pressure will force China to end its political and economic support to Russia, which will directly affect Moscow's ability to continue the war. It also encourages Beijing to take part in a conference in Switzerland in mid-June and support Zelensky's "peace formula", which will then be presented to the Kremlin as an "ultimatum from the world community".
There is also a strategic calculation that, thanks to supplies from the USA, Ukraine will be able to keep the front from collapsing this year and wait for the increase in military production by the European allies, after which it will be possible to return to the offensive plans of the Armed Forces.
In addition, Kyiv remains hopeful of destabilization within the Russian Federation.
That is, for now the unblocking of American aid is perceived by the Ukrainian authorities as a signal to continue the war "until the final victory" and as an argument for refusing negotiations with the Russian Federation on the terms of ending the war on the front line.
However, the question is to what extent will the strategic calculation described above work? And won't the situation for Ukraine continue to worsen? There are indeed risks. Getting a new package of American aid next time may be even more difficult than the current one (and this is already written by the Western media and declared by European politicians). Whether the West will be able to increase the production of military products for the needs of Ukraine is also a question.
In addition, of course, there are no guarantees that the West's pressure on China will work and it will refuse help to Russia. Moreover, there are no guarantees that the PRC will take part in the conference in Switzerland and support Zelensky's "peace formula". Beijing has its own "peace plan" and it provides for a ceasefire on the front line without the withdrawal of Russian troops.
All these risks are quite obvious and therefore can serve as an argument that it is necessary to start negotiations with the Russian Federation now, because the conditions will only get worse in the future.
However, so far this point of view is not prevalent either in the Ukrainian authorities or in the West. And the key date that will determine a lot will be June 15-16 - the days of the conference in Switzerland. It is at that time (and maybe even earlier) that it will become clear whether the first part of the strategic plan of Ukraine and the West will work - to separate China from the Russian Federation. It will also become clear to what extent American aid has changed (or not changed) the situation at the front. Based on the results of this, a decision will probably be made on a further strategy - to continue the war of attrition (with obvious risks of worsening the situation), to increase the participation of NATO countries in the war up to a direct confrontation with the Russian Federation, or to enter into negotiations on stopping the war on the front line.
