On the night of February 17, Ukraine announced the withdrawal of the Defense Forces from Avdiyivka, which Russia sent huge forces to storm. Based on General Tarnavskyi's statement, the personnel of the Ukrainian forces have already been withdrawn from Avdiivka. The Russian public claims that not all managed to get out, some units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remain in the city, trying to make their way to their own. And the departure itself is becoming more and more chaotic and uncontrolled. Videos of prisoners are published.
According to ISW analysts, there is no visual evidence of a mass or chaotic withdrawal of Ukrainian troops, and the constant slight advance of Russian troops in and around Avdiivka suggests that Ukrainian troops are conducting a relatively controlled withdrawal from the settlement. The Ukrainian military also makes it clear that the withdrawal is taking place with heavy battles and losses.
The main question is what positions are the Armed Forces of Ukraine moving to now? As one of the versions, the line from the coking plant to the village of Lastochkine is being discussed in Russian military publications. However, this line is already under threat from the flanks, as Russian forces have advanced further north and south of this hypothetical line. That is, it is not excluded that the positions for withdrawal will move even further to the west. But so far, no information on this matter has been received from the Ukrainian side. In the same section, the fate of the Avdiiv coke chemical plant on the northwestern outskirts of the city remains unclear.
The factory, which in theory can be maintained for quite a long time, is "hung" on the western road through Orlivka, which the Russian troops will clearly try to cut and are already probably firing heavily at it. In addition, they have already reached the plant from the south, and are also "hanging" in the northeast. That is, there is a risk that Koksokhim will be surrounded if the Russian troops continue to develop the offensive in Avdiivka at the same pace.
Ukraine has not yet commented on whether the plant will continue to be maintained. The 3rd Assault Brigade based there generally announced its withdrawal, but did not mention the AKHZ. In addition, there were probably other units of the Armed Forces .
As the warring ex-people's deputy Ihor Lutsenko notes, the Russians took a "stable pace" of the offensive and can advance further after the capture of Avdiivka, stopping at natural boundaries such as the Dnipro. One of the main advantages of the Russians, Lutsenko considers the mass use of guided air bombs, of which Russia has huge reserves. With their help, the Russian army destroys the positions of the Armed Forces, up to targeted strikes on drone operators. Up to 50 such bombs were used per day. Anti-aircraft missiles are much cheaper than missiles, having the same destructive power and relative accuracy. He also notes that Ukraine does not use Western similar bombs because its aircraft cannot climb to the required height. According to him, Ukraine
"The history of the Shaheds is repeating itself: Ukraine, suffering from effective weapons that the Russians have been using for more than a year, cannot create a symmetrical response on the appropriate scale. Although he has the resources, technologies, and people for this. "Ukraine does not have only one thing - the ability to organize everything to solve a specific, obvious task," said Lutsenko.
However, the Ukrainian authorities first of all hope for the help of allies. In his speech at the Munich conference, Zelenskyi said that the retreat from the city was necessary to save the lives of soldiers, and that it was caused by an "artificial shortage of weapons."
"Ukraine can win. Our actions are limited only by the range and sufficiency of the means of destruction. But it depends not only on us. And the situation in Avdiivka confirms this. Unfortunately, keeping Ukraine in an artificial shortage of weapons, in particular, in a shortage of artillery and long-range weapons, allows Putin to adapt to the intensity of hostilities. This weakening of democracy undermines our joint capacity," Zelenskyy said.
