Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy have gained a new level of strength compared to previous attacks that began in the fall of 2022. These strikes are characterized by significant accuracy and great destructive potential.
Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko announced a new series of attacks on Facebook early in the morning on April 11, announcing Russian attacks on power generation facilities and power transmission systems in the Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, Lviv, and Kyiv regions, which covered almost the entire territory of Ukraine.
As a result of the attack, it was reported that the Trypil TPP, one of the largest in the country, was destroyed. "Centrenergo", the owner of the station, noted that all the station's capacities were destroyed.
A new wave of Russian strikes began in late March and included missile and drone attacks with a significant number of hits. Later strikes were often directed at objects that had survived previous attacks.
The Ministry of Energy appealed to citizens to keep information about the consequences of the strikes confidential - the location and names of the objects, the number of hits, the degree of destruction.
Experts have already emphasized that restoring Ukraine's energy system to its previous size will be extremely difficult, if at all possible. The government also began discussing the possibility of raising tariffs for the population in connection with the situation.
"The Russian strikes, which are aimed at energy infrastructure facilities, are striking in their accuracy and purposefulness, unforeseeable even at the beginning of the war," - noted Deputy Minister of Energy Svitlana Grynchuk.
According to her, the damage assessment is ongoing, but a significant part of the thermal generation was damaged. In addition, the attacks also involved hydro generation, including the largest hydroelectric plant on the DniproHPS cascade. There is a possibility of damage to the dam, which could lead to environmental problems.
General Director of "Ukrhydnoenergo" Ihor Syrota said that the restoration of the station will take not only days or months, but years. After the attacks on April 11, the company "Centrenergo" announced the death of its entire generation due to the destruction of the Trypilskaya TPP in the Kyiv region.
"The scale of destruction is incalculable. Money cannot fix this situation. This is the biggest challenge in our history," Andrii Hota, chairman of the supervisory board of Centerenergo PJSC, said.
Trypil TPP was the main supplier of electricity for Kyiv, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions.
Facilities of the operator of the electricity transmission system "Ukrenergo", which ensure the transmission of energy from producers to consumers, were also damaged.
The most difficult situation occurred in the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa regions, where hourly outages had to be established. Often, shutdown schedules were canceled, but after new shelling, they had to be returned.
"Energy workers are doing everything they can to quickly restore and redirect energy, but some objects have such serious damage that it will not be possible to restore them so quickly, even with the availability of equipment," Grynchuk added.
Local authorities and energy company representatives have shared additional details about the impact of recent attacks on energy infrastructure.
DTEK, the largest private energy company that controlled a large share of the country's heat generation before the war, described the new Russian attacks on energy as the most destructive in the last two years of the conflict.
Already after the first strike on March 22, DTEK lost 50% of its generating capacity, and TPPs in Burshtyn and Ladyzhyn were damaged. However, after the second attack on March 29, the company announced even more serious consequences.
"5 out of 6 of our TPPs were seriously damaged, some of them were almost completely destroyed," DTEK executive director Dmytro Sakharuk said during the telethon.
The company, which belongs to Rinat Akhmetov's SCM investment group, emphasized that the scale of the destruction is so great that the company will not be able to recover without international help. In Kharkiv, the country's second largest city, there is no electricity supply for some time. Although the electricity supply was restored with interruptions, the mayor Ihor Terekhov noted that in fact all the main energy facilities were damaged. This applies not only to electricity, but also to heat.
In particular, the Zmiyiv TPP, owned by Centerenergo, was seriously damaged. The head of the company, Andriy Hota, noted that everything that was repaired last fall has now been destroyed. Despite the plans for the restoration, the timing and costs remain unknown.
"Kharkivska TEC-5" also suffered significant damage. According to its manager Oleksandr Minkovich, even with full financing and working equipment, the reconstruction process will take a long time.
"CHP plants not only produce electricity, but also supply heat. And if electricity can somehow be connected to other sources, the situation with regard to heat is much more complicated," said Anna Akermann, an analyst at the International Institute for Sustainable Development and a member of the board of the NGO "Ekodia".
It is likely that cities will have to look for alternative heating systems, as the restoration of centralized heating systems by the next heating season will be impossible, the mayor of Kharkiv admitted after assessing the destruction.
After Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy in March, some observers began to associate them with attacks on Russian oil refineries, calling such a connection a "hysterical reaction" to losses in Russia.
After the attack on April 11, the Russians also expressed the concept of "revenge".
"The strikes were carried out in response to attempts by the Kyiv regime to damage Russian oil and gas industry and energy facilities," the Russian Ministry of Defense said.
However, energy experts and experts claim that the Ukrainian energy system remains one of the main targets for the Russians, who seek to paralyze Ukraine's economy and frighten the population.
"These attacks cannot be explained as revenge for any damage to Russian oil refineries or other reasons," Maria Tsaturyan, director of communications at Ukrenergo NEC, points out in a comment for the Ukrainian Air Force.
The attacks were prepared in advance, aimed at specific objects and aimed at the complete collapse of the Ukrainian energy system.
"What they failed to do in 2022-2023, they are trying to implement in stages," - explains the representative of "Ukrenergo".
According to Maria Tsaturyan, the strategic goal of the Russians has remained unchanged since the beginning of the war - the complete collapse of the Ukrainian energy system.
However, tactics have changed.
Compared to past attacks, the Russians have retained the tactics of shelling those power plants that are important for ensuring the balance of the system during periods of peak consumption - morning and evening, says Tsaturyan.
This applies to thermal and hydroelectric power plants, which can quickly respond to a change in power at the dispatcher's directive.
However, if earlier the Russians used the tactic of "carpet bombing" of all power system facilities, now they are actively attacking specific regions. In this way, they are trying to cut off energy supply to large cities and industrial districts - Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, the spokeswoman for "Ukrenergo" notes.
Western regions - Lviv, Khmelnytska, Ivano-Frankivsk - were also affected by the attacks.
The infrastructure that allows Ukraine to import electricity is also under consideration. This helps in times of need, and is also a source of export revenue during periods when Ukraine can export electricity.
"Since last winter - 2022-2023 - the Russians have been trying to achieve disconnection from the European energy system, but these systems are connected not by one, but by several power transmission lines", - notes the representative of "Ukrenergo". Therefore, complete disconnection is unlikely.
Indeed, in previous mass attacks, the Russians tried to cut off regions with electricity production from regions without it in order to disrupt the grid, said Elena Pavlenko, president of the Dixi Group think tank, in assessing the Russians' change in tactics. Now, point hits are aimed at capacities that ensure flexibility and maneuverability of the system during periods of consumption peaks and troughs.
However, the expert points to another goal: to find a weak point in the system and hit where there is insufficient protection.
"There is, of course, a strategy, but first of all (the Russians want to) find at least some hole and continue to poke at it. What is unprotected is to be beaten," Pavlenko claims.
One of the secrets of the stability of the Ukrainian energy system is the elements that functioned even before the war, notes the Deputy Minister of Energy, Svitlana Grynchuk. Different voltage classes and a very extensive network of the transmission system help power engineers "very quickly change connection schemes and restore damaged objects."
Ukrainian energy engineers responded after the winter of the war and managed to replenish stocks of high-voltage equipment, attracting more than 1.2 billion dollars in international loans and grants.
"This equipment already exists, and it arrives in Ukraine every week, which indicates the availability of equipment, technical capabilities for repair work, and the availability of resources," adds the spokeswoman for Ukrenergo.
The repair work itself in the company is carried out by about one and a half thousand specialists, who have the ability to quickly perform complex work with overall high-voltage equipment - from the dismantling of the damaged to the installation of a new one.
The attacks in 2022-2023 also made us think about the physical protection of energy facilities. This protection will continue as it has proven to be effective.
"I can't share the details, but I can say that if it weren't for this protection, at least at our facilities, the strikes would have been 2-3 times bigger and more extensive," Maria Tsaturyan emphasizes.
After the March attacks, there was no shortage in the power system, and the restrictions for industrial and household consumers were not due to a shortage of capacity, but to damage to the network.
In addition, a certain share of the balance of the Ukrainian energy system is the import of European electricity, which, according to Tsaturyan, is "almost fully loaded."
"Everything that can work, all power units - they work," - emphasizes the representative of "Ukrenergo".
In addition, wind and solar generation are working, which allowed to quickly restore energy supply in one of the most problematic regions - Odesa.
But after the attack on April 11, Ukrenergo stated that "now there is much less electricity on the production scale than there was yesterday, before the attack", and in order to maintain the balance, "it is necessary to unload the consumption scale".
Electricity should be consumed especially sparingly in the evening - from 19:00 to 22:00.
A very warm spring allowed Ukraine not only to end the heating season almost a month earlier than usual, but also to withstand shocks to power generation.
Due to the "raising" of reserves at nuclear plants, which serve as the basis for generation, and the attraction of imports and solar energy for the balance, the demand is still being met.
But as the April 11 attacks showed, that can change very quickly, even before the next summer consumption peak.
"We may face a deficit problem when consumption starts to grow," Deputy Minister of Energy Svitlana Grynchuk notes.
According to her, "by the summer we will not be able to restore (power) to the level that was before the attack on March 22." And it will be difficult to restore the "necessary minimum" by winter.
"We have plans to install new generation, which will also help to get through both the summer and the next heating season. However, it will be very difficult to restore the damaged objects to the level that existed before these attacks," adds Svitlana Grynchuk.
The first winter of the war was very difficult for Ukraine, when "energy workers did really incredible things, when they reconnected in various ways, and the system continued to work," notes Anna Ackermann.
"After that, there were enough capacities, but at some point it may happen that they will not be enough. And then the shutdowns will begin. Constantly. Because there simply won't be additional capacities," the expert predicts.
Unexpectedly, the crisis situation in the energy industry forced the Ukrainian authorities to address the issue of radical changes in the energy system, for which there was no political will before in peacetime.
One of these changes is the rejection of the Soviet legacy in the form of large thermal power plants in favor of smaller forms of generation - distributed or decentralized.
It is believed that many small objects are more difficult to destroy than one large one. Also, new constructions should be less harmful to the environment than former coal giants.
In February, President Zelenskyi expressed the opinion that Ukraine needs to decentralize and “green” the energy sector in order to minimize the risks of energy disruptions due to further Russian attacks.
After the March attacks on the power system, the need for new distributed generation was confirmed by the Chairman of the Board of Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi. However, it is possible to implement this model only after solving the problem of debts in the market for billions of hryvnias. Without this, it is not worth waiting for the arrival of investors in distributed energy.
However, is this possible during the war?
"When we at Ukrenergo hear that something is impossible, we smile, because we were told that it is impossible to integrate into the European energy system," company spokeswoman Maria Tsaturyan recalls the events of March 2022, when Ukraine joined ENTSO a year and a half ahead of schedule. She also believes that distributed generation is possible even in times of war if there is no debt in the market. But for this "we need to treat with regulations" and "stop the possibility of not paying for electricity", she adds.
However, she admits, distributed generation is not a project for a few weeks or even a year, and until next winter, energy companies will have to restore the quality of old capacities while there is no distributed generation.
However, the main problem is not only in debt or time - Ukraine does not have enough funds to implement this beautiful idea of decentralized generation, Olena Pavlenko believes. In particular, external donors can set a condition that the new generation is environmentally friendly.
On the one hand, the prospects of the green direction have already been confirmed by the investors themselves, who continue to implement new projects even during the war and the unresolved problem with the green tariff. They simply enter the market and start work as a normal generation, notes Pavlenko.
However, in order to meet the most essential needs until next winter, Ukraine will have to restore part of the thermal power plants on coal or gas. In the future, even small nuclear reactors or the construction of nuclear power plants should not be rejected if Ukraine intends to have powerful industrial bases and export electricity.
Green energy also has its problems. For its development, it is necessary to update networks and have sufficient balancing capacity, since energy from wind and sun is not generated as stably as energy from traditional sources.
This problem is difficult even for countries like Germany, where they counted on Russian gas as a "balance" to renewable energy sources. Green energy is of interest to municipalities, which see both economic and security benefits in it.
Distributed generation can also be effective at the local level. For the rapid implementation of this technology, it is necessary to investigate the possibilities of its autonomous operation without connection to the main network.
As a result of the attacks, it became obvious that the main goal of Russian actions is the energy transmission system and balancing generation, says Deputy Minister of Energy Svitlana Grynchuk. Therefore, the protection of these systems should come to the fore, and "the best protection for our facilities is facility protection software (PPO)." Thus, the main task of the government now is to strengthen air defense.
It is important to emphasize that air defense should work together with the physical protection of objects, because without it the consequences of shelling could be even more tragic.
Experts believe that the key aspect of protection is air defense, which is a necessary element for Ukrenergo. However, this aspect does not depend on energy workers.
In the current conditions, there are two parallel processes - strategic changes in the power system and urgent preparation for the next winter.
As for restoring capacity, the government and companies are now assessing whether it is possible to restore it quickly enough to keep the system running until the summer or the next heating season. For now, it is necessary to react quickly and implement solutions, as there is little time for long-term strategies.
In order to survive next winter, Ukraine will have to restore some capacities. On the other hand, gas turbine and gas piston plants are needed, as well as distributed renewable energy.
Active installation of energy storage systems is currently taking place, and solar panels are planned to be installed at critical infrastructure facilities.
In the future, the construction of new nuclear units is planned, as basic energy is needed.
