The command of the Russian occupation forces is increasingly clearly considering Lyman as a key target for the upcoming offensive on Sloviansk. This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), recording a significant increase in the dynamics of fighting in the Lyman direction. Analysts note that progress in certain areas is being made by both sides: Ukrainian forces continue to stabilize their defenses and recapture positions, while Russian units are trying to find weak points for further pressure.
According to geolocation data from December 13, Ukrainian troops managed to regain control over lost positions in the southern part of the village of Karpivka, northwest of Lyman. At the same time, Russian troops achieved partial tactical success in the northern part of the same settlement. This creates a difficult situation in a sector where the initiative is constantly changing.
Particular attention is paid to the area of Serebryansk Forestry, where the enemy is trying to implement the tactics of encirclement. The spokesman for the 11th Army Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Dmytro Zaporozhets, explains that the Russians are trying to enter Yampol from the flanks - both from the north and from the south. If these maneuvers continue, the situation in Yampol itself may deteriorate significantly. Weather conditions significantly complicate the defense for Ukrainian units, while for the Russians, the main problem remains water obstacles, including the channel of the Seversky Donets River. They are the ones that prevent the occupiers from fully supporting their forces in the areas of Serebryanka and Dronivka.
The situation in the Pokrovsky direction also remains tense. Russian troops continue assault attempts, but there have been no confirmed changes to the front line over the past day. ISW analysts drew attention to a video showing the presence of Russian assault groups in the center of Mirnograd, but they assess this not as a seizure of territory, but as an infiltration operation without the possibility of consolidation. Despite the statements of Russian "military leaders" about successes, the actual situation indicates rather local penetrations that do not affect the configuration of the front.
Fighting continues in Pokrovsk itself and its surroundings, in particular in the areas of Hryshyn, Rodynske and Sukhetske. In some areas, Russian units are experiencing a shortage of artillery shells, which reduces their ability to support offensive operations. In contrast, Ukrainian operators of long-range FPV drones continue to successfully strike the concentration of occupiers' manpower in the areas of Myrnograd and Rodynske, which significantly affects the dynamics of the battle.
The situation in the Lymansky and Pokrovsky directions remains tense, and the nature of the fighting is maneuverable and unstable. ISW analysts indicate that the intensity of clashes may increase in the coming days, especially given the Russians' attempts to gain a tactical advantage before the weather conditions worsen.
