In recent days, the discussion on the issue of mobilization in Ukraine has resumed, especially in connection with the decrease in the age of mobilized persons. According to The New York Times, the conscription of more men aged 20 could lead to a decrease in the birth rate in Ukraine. Such theses are becoming the subject of reflection among domestic and foreign experts.
Ukrainian experts confirm the existence of a demographic crisis in the country, pointing to several key reasons. One of them is the increase in mobilization and sending young men to military service. According to research, this can significantly affect the population structure and birth rate.
In addition, experts point to other factors that influence the demographic situation in Ukraine. In particular, this is the lack of effective state policy to support the family, a low level of social protection for young families, economic instability, and a lack of opportunities for career growth.
Lowering the age of mobilization will affect the birth rate in Ukraine, as it may threaten Ukraine's economy, writes NYT.
“Experts believe that Ukraine, like most former republics, has a low population of 20-year-olds. During the deep economic crisis and depression of the 1990s, the birth rate dropped significantly. Conscripting more men in their 20s into the army will reduce the birth rate,” the article says. It notes that conscripting more men in their 20s, given the likely combat losses, would risk reducing the number of births in this small generation of Ukrainians, which would lead to a reduction in the number of men of draft and working age in a decade and would jeopardize the country’s security and economy in the future.
According to the Ministry of Justice, 187,387 babies were born in Ukraine during 2023.
The largest number of newborns was registered in Kyiv - almost 20 thousand children.
16.6 thousand children were born in Lviv region, 14.4 thousand in Dnipropetrovsk region, 13.7 thousand in Odessa region, 10.8 thousand in Kyiv region, 9.5 thousand in Rivne region, and 9,450 babies in Transcarpathia.
Compared to 2022, when 206,032 babies were born, the birth rate has decreased by 9%, according to statistics from Opendatabot. Overall, in the first year of the invasion, the number of newborns sharply decreased by 25%. For comparison, in the period from 2010 to 2013, about 500 thousand children were born in Ukraine per year.
In general, a decline in the birth rate in Ukraine has been observed since 2013. From then until the start of the full-scale war, 6-7% fewer children were born each year.
Birth rate in Ukraine: how it changed from year to year
| Year | Fertility (number of newborns) |
| 2010 | 497 689 |
| 2011 | 502 595 |
| 2012 | 520 705 |
| 2013 | 503 657 |
| 2014 | 465 882 |
| 2015 | 411 781 |
| 2016 | 397 037 |
| 2017 | 363 987 |
| 2018 | 335 874 |
| 2019 | 308 817 |
| 2020 | 299 058 |
| 2021 | 273 772 |
| 2022 | 206 032 |
| 2023 | 187 387 |
| Source: Opendatabot |
Not just mobilization: what are the main causes of the demographic crisis in Ukraine?
Economist and financial analyst Oleksiy Kushch explained to Focus the prerequisites for the demographic crisis in Ukraine and added that the mobilization age plays an indirect role here.
Over the past 10 years, Ukraine's population has decreased significantly, and experts are sure: this is a demographic catastrophe
“The demographic crisis has structural prerequisites in Ukraine. We have our own specifics: permanent economic crises and the lack of a positive development scenario have an impact, as well as the lack of social state support for childbirth. The state does not form significant social capital for mothers who give birth to children. There is no assistance in the socialization of women after childbirth, that is, their return to work, there is no support for raising children from the state. And plus there is colossal migration from the country, which before the war was associated with economic factors, and now with military ones. Before the war, people emigrated for economic reasons, now millions are leaving because of the war. Therefore, lowering the draft age may simply further increase the emigration of teenagers from the country, whom mothers will try to take abroad. In this regard, the mobilization factor may have an impact, albeit indirectly,” the expert noted.
According to him, Ukraine is not experiencing a demographic crisis, but a demographic catastrophe.
“A crisis is when the population decreases by 5%, for example. And our population has decreased by almost 1.5 times since 2013. This is no longer a crisis, but a catastrophe. The birth rate (0.7) is one of the lowest in the world. The birth rate has decreased to the level of accidental births. For example, before the war, more than 300 thousand children were born in our country, and now there are 70 thousand, so there is an almost double decrease. This is no longer a crisis, but a demographic catastrophe of a national scale,” he added.
Economist, Director of Economic Programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future Anatoliy Amelin confirms that the mobilization age is not the cause of the low birth rate in Ukraine.
He also named three main factors that directly affect the demographic situation:
- unpredictability,
- inability to plan for the future,
- limitation of financial resources in the absence of state compensation and incentive policies.
“When a couple has children, their expenses increase. And there is no state policy on incentives and compensation. So, women who want to give birth are faced with a dilemma: either work, feel comfortable and live well, or lose their income and increase their expenses. Therefore, the economic issue is the main reason why people do not seek to give birth. Unpredictability, financial issues and the lack of state policy on supporting such families. What the state offers does not stimulate. And mobilization does not deal with this issue in any way,” he said.
Meanwhile, according to the UN, more than 6 million citizens have left Ukraine since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, Reuters reported, citing the UN Refugee Agency.
Most refugees entered the EU through the borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. More than 3.3 million have crossed the border into Poland and, according to Polish government estimates, about half of them may remain in the country for a long time.
