Ukraine is facing the catastrophic consequences of a demographic crisis that began long before Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. However, the war was a key factor that significantly worsened the situation. According to Der Spiegel , almost seven million Ukrainians were forced to leave the country due to fighting, which was the largest demographic outflow in modern history.
It is noted that Ukraine's population began to age in the 1960s, the situation was worsened by the economic collapse of the 1990s, when the Soviet Union collapsed, because "millions of women and men feared for their future," so they gave birth to fewer children or emigrated.
And Russia's full-scale war, which began in February 2022, the publication writes, "turned the demographic crisis into a catastrophe." And it cites the following data: almost seven million people have fled abroad, at least five million Ukrainians now live under Russian occupation, tens of thousands of civilians and up to 100,000 military personnel have died.
If in the early 1990s there were 51.5 million inhabitants in Ukraine, now only 29 million live in the territory controlled by Kyiv, the material states.
Ella Libanova, a leading demographer and head of the Institute of Demography and Social Research in Kyiv, said that the population of an industrialized country begins to decline when the fertility rate falls below 2.1 children per woman. According to her calculations, in the EU it is slightly less than 1.5, and in Ukraine this figure has fallen below one since the beginning of the war.
According to Libanova, depopulation is “somewhat inevitable,” because “the population is simply too old.” At the same time, she says, this trend is not unique to Ukraine. Russia, in particular, is struggling with similar problems, but its population is almost four times larger.
The expert named means to combat an even sharper population decline. In her opinion, “not only Ukrainians, but also people from other countries should be encouraged to return.” Improving the quality of life can also contribute to an increase in the birth rate.
However, for this to happen, the war must first end and security guarantees must be in place, Libanova added. After all, it is unlikely that anyone will return there, the threat of attack will persist, and not only will they not return, but even more people will flee.
EU accession would be important for economic prospects, Libanova believes:
“This would stimulate growth and modernize the economy.”.
Demographic situation in Ukraine: latest news
As we reported earlier, the departure abroad of boys under the age of 18 will be an additional blow to the demographic development of Ukraine, although not as serious as the mass departure in the first months of the war. This is according to Oleksiy Poznyak, a senior researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Research.
In Ukraine, there are 286 deaths per 100 births, and this is a bad result, says Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director for scientific work at the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems. But, according to him, it is very difficult to expect anything better during a war.
No one knows for sure how many people lived in Ukraine as of 2024, says demographer Gladun, as it is difficult to calculate. The estimated population was a little over 34 million.
